I think it’s safe to say that Tangiers Island is safe from the “Doomsday Glacier” as a matter of public policy.

I just read “Commentary: National approach is more urgent than stopgap funding for Tangier Island,” written by Roger Chesley for the Virginia Mercury news service. The commentary starts out:

“A so-called “doomsday glacier” in Antarctica that could raise sea levels several feet is disintegrating faster than previously predicted, according to a new study.”

I clicked on the Nature study that is linked, and it does not give a prediction for sea level rise, but it references another study that does give a sea level rise prediction and timeline. The referenced study (unfortunately abstract only) is here https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1249055, and it says:

“Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter.”

In other words, less than an inch of sea level rise between now and 2100, with a more rapid rise starting between 200 and 900 years from now. I think it’s safe to say that Tangiers Island is safe from the “Doomsday Glacier” as a matter of public policy.

But what about sea level rise from other sources? There’s sea level rise from expanding oceans due to global warming. There’s also glacier melt, Greenland melt, and other Antarctic melt. Sea level rise is constantly measured by satellite. An up-to-date estimate can be found here: https://sealevel.colorado.edu It comes to an adjusted 1.3 inches (an actual rise of 1.1 before adjustment) per decade with some acceleration, as shown.

However, there’s another major factor for Tangier Island, as Roger points out in an op-ed that he links in “Commentary”:

“He (Skip Stiles, executive director of Norfolk-based Wetlands Watch) said the Virginia Institute of Marine Science delivered a report to the legislature last year on recurrent flooding in Tidewater. It noted an expected 18-inch increase in sea-level rise over the next 20 to 50 years in Virginia.”

The Tidewater area, including Tangier Island, is subsiding. There is another Nature study describing the subsidence around Tangier Island and providing some predictions of sea level rise:: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep17890

I believe all measurements, predictions, costs, and benefits should be considered with full caveats and context. As is the case in a representative democracy, politicians will make the decision whether to spend money preserving Tangiers for at least a few decades and potentially longer. As I have said before, we are not a scientocracy, and we should consider science, such as sea level rise predictions, as one of the inputs to the political process.

Eric Peterson
Front Royal, VA