Smoking Makes an Unwanted Comeback Among Gen Z, UVA Expert Warns

Although cigarette smoking remains at its lowest level in decades, health experts say troubling cultural trends suggest smoking may be making an unexpected comeback among Generation Z.

Melissa A. Little, PhD, MPH.

Dr. Melissa Little, associate professor at the University of Virginia School of Medicine and director of the Center for Nicotine and Tobacco Research, says the concern is not that young people are smoking at record levels today. Rather, it’s that smoking is once again becoming socially acceptable, a shift that could reverse years of progress in tobacco prevention.

“Cigarette smoking is still at its lowest that it’s ever been in like 25 years,” Little said during a media briefing. “But there’s this growing cultural renormalization of smoking that I believe is threatening to reverse decades of progress.”

A Different Kind of Rebellion

Little says today’s trend differs from the peer pressure campaigns that dominated tobacco prevention efforts in previous generations.

Instead, smoking is becoming part of a broader cultural identity centered around authenticity, rebellion, and rejecting the carefully curated “wellness” culture popular on social media.

She pointed to celebrities including Charli XCX, Dua Lipa, Sabrina Carpenter, and actor Jeremy Allen White, whose public images frequently include cigarettes.

“We’re really seeing all of these people serving as unpaid spokespeople for the tobacco industry,” Little said.

Ironically, she noted, Generation Z is also one of the healthiest generations in many respects.

According to research cited by Little:

• 64% of legal-age Gen Z adults do not drink alcohol.
• 67% of 12th graders reported using no drugs in 2024, the highest level ever recorded.

Against that backdrop, cigarettes have become, for some, a symbol of rebellion against the “clean girl” aesthetic and wellness culture.

Movies, Music, and Social Media

Little says young people aren’t seeing cigarette advertisements in the traditional sense. Instead, they’re encountering smoking through entertainment and social media.

According to data she cited:

• 51% of the top box office films released in 2024 contained tobacco imagery.
• 34% of youth-rated films included smoking.
• 85% of young people ages 15 to 24 report frequently seeing tobacco use in the media they consume.
• Nearly one in four chart-topping music videos feature tobacco imagery, reaching an estimated five billion YouTube views.

Older films contribute as well.

Little noted that classic movies from previous decades often contain far more smoking than modern productions, exposing younger audiences to tobacco use as they rediscover older films through streaming services.

Smoking as a Social Ritual

Little believes another factor may be the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Generation Z is one of the most digitally connected generations in history, yet many young adults also report feeling socially isolated.

Smoking, she said, offers something many young people are seeking: a shared ritual.

“We’ve always kind of known that smoking is this shared moment, this social ritual,” Little said. “Let’s go outside, let’s take a smoke break.”

Rather than classic peer pressure, today’s smoking culture often reflects a desire to belong.

“It’s less of this traditional peer pressure,” she said. “It’s more of this socialization. This is what our group does.”

Warning Signs Are Beginning to Appear

Although youth cigarette smoking remains historically low, Little said other nicotine trends deserve attention.

She noted that past 30-day use of any nicotine product among 12th graders increased from 17% in 2024 to 21.8% in 2025, suggesting that nicotine use may be gaining momentum even if cigarette smoking has not yet followed the same pattern.

She also pointed to the rapid growth of nicotine pouches. According to the data she cited, the estimated number of users grew from about 200,000 in 2021 to roughly 480,000 in 2024, highlighting the popularity of newer nicotine products.

Anxiety and an Uncertain Future

Little also pointed to broader societal pressures affecting young adults.

Mental health concerns, economic uncertainty, climate anxiety, housing costs, student debt, and fears about artificial intelligence replacing jobs all contribute to a sense that the future is beyond their control.

“I think if I had to summarize it all,” she said, “smoking is this symbol of a pre-digital authenticity.”

Where Vaping Fits In

Public health campaigns over the past decade have largely focused on vaping, which successfully reduced youth cigarette smoking.

However, Little believes that success may have unintentionally left many young people less aware of the dangers of traditional cigarettes.

Research also shows that young people who vape are three to four times more likely to go on to smoke cigarettes.

“We assumed everyone kind of knew how harmful cigarette smoking was,” she said. “Unfortunately, that left a big gap in cigarette-specific messaging.”

While nicotine pouches may expose users to fewer harmful chemicals than combustible cigarettes, Little cautioned that researchers still know relatively little about their long-term health effects and worries they could become another pathway to nicotine addiction.

The Numbers Still Show Progress

Despite the cultural warning signs, youth cigarette smoking remains at historic lows.

According to statistics cited during the briefing:

• National youth cigarette smoking reached a 25-year low of 1.4% in 2024.
• Among Virginia high school students, cigarette smoking has fallen from 28.6% in 2001 to just 2% in 2024.
• Approximately 940 Virginia youth begin smoking each year.

Little stressed that behavioral data often lags behind cultural trends by several years.

“We’re not in the middle of a crisis yet,” she said. “I think we’re at the start of a trend.”

What Can Be Done?

Little said reversing the trend will require action on several fronts.

Among her recommendations are expanding anti-tobacco education beyond vaping, increasing anti-smoking content on social media, supporting school prevention programs, maintaining funding for tobacco prevention efforts, and improving access to mental health services.

She also cited research showing that assigning R ratings to films featuring tobacco use, or pairing movies with anti-smoking messages, could significantly reduce youth smoking initiation.

Perhaps most importantly, she said, public health officials cannot assume the battle against cigarettes has already been won.

“The tobacco industry is 10 steps ahead of us,” Little said. “We need to keep addressing all forms of nicotine and tobacco because if we focus on only one product, another one will take its place.”

The statistics show that smoking among young people remains at historically low levels. But Little’s message was that culture often changes before behavior does. By the time cigarette use begins to rise, she warned, the social forces behind it may already be firmly in place.