Games Nations Play

Three-dimensional chess is essentially a term implying the realm beyond normal comprehension. To the world population, the chess match shaping up along the borders of Ukraine may well fit that definition. “Queen’s Bishop 1 to King’s Knight 5” muses Vladimir Putin. Vlad has just moved another motorized rifle division to the front. This might be checkmate for Kiev. As the Russian people lament their disposition in life Vladimir calls out Ukraine to face the music. Distraction and sleight of hand as they say.

In a grim reminder of the 2008 Olympic Games, the world is once again distracted from the games by Mr. Putin. The threat of a full-on invasion of Ukraine generates images of racing tanks and burning cities not seen since 1945. That is indeed a possibility. Vladimir Putin is quite aware of its psychological impacts on the Western citizenry – so he pushes those buttons when conditions at home demand a distraction. It’s easy to masquerade as the local menace when you hold an inventory of ICBMs in your hip pocket. That card alone indorses discretion and prevents the stern spanking the US gave Iraq when they acted up. So as the West looks on with threats of sanctions, what pray tell, will be the Kremlin’s next move? Will Vladimir really launch the horrors of a blitzkrieg aimed at the Ukrainian capital? It seems unfathomable. But as previously alluded, the last time Mr. Putin interrupted the Olympic Games, he surprised George Bush with the invasion of Georgia.

Only Mr. Putin knows if we are to be treated to a sequel. The limited soiree into Georgia accomplished his goals as NATO hastily retracted its membership offer – not to be heard from since. His antics also scared away any Western desires for Ukrainian membership, at least for the time being. Meanwhile, reclining in his chair – amidst the roar of nations, President Putin keeps his cards close to his vest.

While the others play chess, he is playing poker. A peek at his hand reveals thousands of combat forces arrayed on Ukrainian flanks backed by an arsenal of ballistic missiles with pilots recently seasoned in Syria. All are poised for the offensive. Their ammunition, fuel, and food pods are positioned forward. Everything is set. The Pentagon satellite feeds acknowledge this to be true. Mr. Putin has gone to great lengths to set a proper ruse. The entire show is cloaked in cigar smoke and Russian propaganda depicting NATO as the cause of this consternation. Depending on your vantage point, there may be some truth there but Mr. Putin is the only one at the table brandishing a pistol. Make no mistake, he is the antagonist. All in, it looks like Vladimir is not bluffing. But to the trained eye, the risks of playing this hand are far greater than the rewards.

At a glance, Mr. Putin has set the conditions for results that don’t seem to pan out in his favor. Once tanks roll, cities burn and civilian casualties overwhelm our TV screens, Mr. Putin’s actions will jump-start NATO’s resolve. The alliance will call for more US missile systems and collectively revise their security calculations with increased defense spending – not what Vlad wants. The 2% GDP standard for defense spending will suddenly be met and exceeded by the alliance across the board. Poland will openly embrace US troop bases and war machinery and missile umbrellas will flourish. The Baltic nations will be jumping up and down for renewed US involvement there. Companies that produce such war material in the West will increase production.

The savvy stock market investors should take note. The Scandinavian countries of Sweden and Finland will send ministers to address NATO membership and sanctions of all sorts will be heaped on Russia and its oligarchs with their fortunes interwoven in western assets. Russian income from piped gas to Western Europe will take a hit that will subsequently reduce its ability to purchase more war machinery and platforms. The combined pain on Mr. Putin will be minimal, but for Russia – it will be enormous.

The lamentation of his people that induces these warmongering distractions will increase and the end result will be a more unified NATO alliance with a renewed comprehension of who the bad guys are. Instead of helping his economy flourish and partnering with Western Europe, Russia will be ostracized. Vlad may as well build another wall and drape it with an iron curtain. For a dictator obsessed with how history will portray him, he may have moved that chess piece prematurely. When the smoke clears he may be left holding a pair of eights and aces.