Smoke on the Horizon

Distraction is defined as a thing that prevents someone from giving full attention to something else. Most people in the U.S. are distracted from international events – especially those that potentially impact our lives. Few in the U.S. are tracking the turmoil in Iran as it enters a second week or sees the Chinese flexing again towards Taiwan, and few are cognizant that the North Koreans just fired a ballistic missile over Japan. Theoretically, being uninformed about things you can’t control is not all bad. Ignorance is bliss, as they say. Locally in the U.S., we’re focused on the looming red vs. blue showdown in early November. Others are interested in the fall harvests, football, and the looming World Series. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is equally distracted by the November World Cup. And of course – Halloween lurks about in two weeks. What will I go as this year?

Earlier in 2022, we woke to the sounds of the last big land war in Europe. Russia’s armored thrusts into Ukraine startled the West and focused our collective attention. Blue and yellow signs bloomed everywhere in support of the Ukrainian cause. Now, not so much. That’s unfortunate because our team is winning, and the bad Russians are crumbling – yet few notice. The novelty has faded.

Photos broadcast news as cited or Public Domain-Pixabay

The Russian populace is rapidly stumbling into an enlightenment period. State propaganda is giving way to social media, and stories from the battlefront outweigh the fake news. The truth is causing mass protests and a mass exodus from Russia. Vladimir Putin’s forces are running, and he can’t do anything about it. His mobilization decree was an act of extreme desperation followed shortly by a sham referendum to annex provinces in Ukraine that his forces can’t hold. He’s also unleashed a fresh batch of ‘nuclear’ warnings to the West. We’ve heard this noise before, but now something has changed. Vladimir resembles a cornered animal, and the prospect of a nuclear detonation is higher than it’s been since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. In fact, our President’s handlers are busily walking back one of his statements telling us so. But why should we get up in arms over something we can’t control? That’s a fair statement. We may not be able to control it, but the possibility of nuclear use is something we shouldn’t be shocked to hear.

The simple facts are as follows; Putin is losing badly and has run out of options. In his mind, he’s essentially fighting with one arm tied behind his back. The other is his vast arsenal of tactical and strategic nukes. Psychologically, Vlad is atop Maslow’s hierarchy. He’s the Almighty Russian ruler and has more riches than God. There’s nothing else for him except his place in history. His goal in February was to build a resurgent Soviet Empire, and now that has vanished. His principal Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC) from Russia into Crimea are out of action due to Ukrainian strikes. Now he’s recklessly firing missiles into civilian targets in Ukraine as punishment. Those actions are war crimes. His troops don’t have the will to fight, and desertions dwindle his force daily. Even Kazakhstan’s President snubbed him at a recent conference. His strong man veneer is tarnished.

We in the West do not understand authoritarian mindsets. In our world, if we don’t like you, we ridicule you in the press until you resign or are voted out of office. That doesn’t happen in Russia. So, what are President Putin’s options? The answer to that lies in the disposition of the man himself and how he perceives himself. He cannot just resign like Nixon in 1974 or go home like German chancellor Merkle. The unforeseen cannot be allowed to happen. He will not allow himself to be removed voluntarily from power. All sorts of unforeseen horrors could befall him – so he’s not going there. Resignation equals too many variables, and all are bad. A strong man is only strong when he has the power and a body of guards to carry out his will.

If he steps down like a Western leader, the regime that replaces him may bow to international pressure and hand him over to the Hague. He’d be tried for war crimes and never see the light of day. Internally, he’s made lots of enemies in Russia. He’s imprisoned or killed many who have opposed him. If he steps down, the line of folks waiting to kill him will wrap around the Kremlin. Stepping down will never be an option for him. So, what’s left? Continue along with this constant humiliation? NOT.

The nuclear options are the only cards still nestled close to his vest. He has flexed several times with nuclear warnings, but few believe he is mad enough to push those buttons. Now, he has solicited former Russian President Medvedev and Chechnya strongman, Ramzan Kadyrov, to advocate the use of Nukes. It’s not just him anymore now, it’s a collection of Russian figureheads. Mob mentality is always easier than going it alone. But to cross the red line, he needs some sort of spark to provoke this response. Perhaps a perceived misstep on our part, like supplying Ukraine with a ‘forbidden munition’ or Ukraine firing a missile into Russia proper. You can guarantee that Ukraine is going to push the issue. They will continue to attack, and they will push Russia back and back. It’s inevitable. It’s humiliating for Putin, and he won’t put up with it much longer. The number of cards left to play that produce anything near saving face and remaining in power is one – Nukes.

A nuke gets everyone’s attention immediately. Once it is fired, the serve is passed to the West. What do we do now? We have telegraphed that nuclear use will be met by a catastrophic response.  What does that mean? Once Vladimir fires a nuke, escalation is our only option. So, we take out the Russian Black Sea fleet. Now it’s on. Remember, once he’s fired one, he’s proved he’s a madman, and there’s no going back. No normal rules then. At that point, he’s got us hostage, and we either cower to a madman’s whim – or take it to the next level. The likelihood that we will pause is high, given the leadership, we have now. The other option for us is more Super-powerish but will undoubtedly escalate to a potential catastrophe beyond our imagination. Vladimir Putin is up against the wall. He’s seventy years old, he’s cornered, and sees only one card to play that changes his losing hand. Playing that nuclear “wild card” makes sense for Mr. Putin.

If Mr. Putin does throw that card, we can only hope that there are smarter minds in the Russian execution loop that will interdict this order.