Weather or Not

It’s been said that two people cannot keep a secret and modern wisdom shares that there are two versions to every story. And so it goes with the seasons and weather forecasters too. We have Meteorological and Astronomical versions of the calendar that help predict the weather. And then we have the Farmer’s Almanac. February has shown its colors and we’ve enjoyed both Ground Hog Day and Valentine wrapped in snow. With temps hovering in the twenties, the folks in the Valley don’t need a weatherman to tell them it’s cold out. However, for planning purposes, when should we plan on hanging up our wintry garments and hooking up the plow? In the immortal words of Alfred Lord Tennyson, “In the spring a young man’s fancy turns to thoughts of love.” That’s all good, but are we talking fireplace action or out on the water? Most of the prognosticators say, “Not so fast.” In typical fashion around here, March always suffers an identity crisis. Some of the best snow skiing ever is in March but let’s not digress.

Meteorologically speaking, March 1st ushers in spring regardless of Punxsutawney Phil’s soothsaying skills. That’s because winter is considered to be December through February. As an elementary refresher, we have four seasons under the meteorological paradigm, and each is allotted 3 months – albeit there are times when one season encroaches into the next. March is generally the recipient of such ill-treatment.

The astronomical definition of spring is different however because the natural rotation of the Earth around the Sun forms the basis for the astronomical calendar in which we define seasons with two solstices and two equinoxes. The equinoxes mark the times when the sun passes directly above the equator. In our hemisphere, the summer solstice falls on June 21 (the longest day of the year), so many people believe that’s the true beginning of summer. The winter solstice on December 22 (the shortest day of the year) is often said to be the start of winter. The vernal or spring equinox will be on March 21st, and the autumnal equinox on September 22nd. So, astronomically speaking, spring arrives on March 21st, this year, which is aka “the vernal equinox” – but essential for our purposes, it’s the party weekend ushered in by St Patrick’s Day and March Madness revelry. The question remains though, will my date be sporting a sundress or masquerading as a Green Bay Packers fan on St. Pat’s weekend? Are we canoeing on the river or bundled up by the fire? I’ve got to make some plans.

Meanwhile, the rest of us farmers, early beachgoers, and wedding planners, need some answers too: “What’s the weather going to be like next month or even April?” The groundhog saw his shadow, so March is going to be frigid. – If only it was as easy as that. Personally, I think that glorified little rodent steps out each year, gets frightened by all the people, and runs back inside – and we’re supposed to make life decisions based on that. Really?

So, when science and the groundhogs fail us, let’s consult Almanac wisdom. It appears from all indications, that spring-like temperature may take their time arriving (except perhaps for the first three workdays of this week, Feb. 21-23, promised in the mid-to-upper 60s). Here’s a quick excerpt from the Farmers’ Almanac: “According to our long-range outlook, temperatures will be slow to warm. In fact, around the time of the vernal equinox, unseasonably cold temperatures may be gripping many parts of the country. Southern states will experience somewhat cooler-than-normal conditions.” The almanac isn’t just calling out March this year. A further review of the publication reveals predictions of an unseasonably cool May in the Valley as well. Shucks, looks like we may have to warm up the hot toddies and bust up some more wood for the fireplace.