County Emergency SITREP: Ida coming, COVID numbers continue to track upwards

On Monday morning, August 30, Warren County Emergency Management Coordinator Rick Farrall released an updated Situation Report (SITREP) regarding the approach of the remnants of Hurricane Ida forecast to reach us Wednesday with possible flash-flooding implications, and a report on the latest COVID-19 overview for the County, which continue to track upward at a higher rate than the state average.

Below is his report in full, beginning with Ida which left a path of devastation behind in Louisiana and Mississippi where it made an August 29^th landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on the 16^th anniversary of hurricane Katrina’s 2005 devastation of the same area in and around New Orleans:

1. Tropical Storm Ida. This storm is expected to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:

1. Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.
2. Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama through Wednesday.
3. Current NWS modeling forecasts the impacts of Ida will reach our area/region beginning this Wednesday (9/1) afternoon; there is a 10% (slight) flash flood risk over the next three (3) days. As such, it is recommended that everyone take the appropriate precautions regarding the possibility of localized flooding. We are under a Flash Flood Watch from 9/1 02:00 am to 9/2 02:00 am, see below.
4. VDEM anticipates NWS Sterling will conduct a regional weather briefing sometime tomorrow morning. I will forward additional information regarding Ida, as appropriate.

2. Hazardous Weather (as of 08:43 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021).

1. DAY ONE (Today and Tonight). Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening. An isolated instance of flooding is also possible.
2. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (Tuesday through Sunday). An isolated instance of flooding is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly across central Virginia. (1) A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for most locations west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin mountains from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for central Maryland and northern Virginia from Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning. Heavy tropical rainfall could result in considerable flash flooding. River flooding is also possible, which could continue into Thursday and Friday. (2) A few severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are the main threats.
3. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT… (1) From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. (2) The remnants of Ida will interact with a stalled front, resulting in a prolonged period of heavy rainfall beginning late Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday evening. Rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. (3) This amount of heavy rainfall will not only result in the potential for considerable flash flooding of creeks and small streams, but also the potential for river flooding on the main stem rivers.
4. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

3. COVID-19.

1. As of today (data from 8/22-8/28), the County’s rate of new cases per 100,000 persons is 333.6, and is considered “High” (by comparison, the State rate is 250.9, and is also considered “High”). Our percentage of PCR tests that are positive is reported at 11.5% (by comparison, the State rate is 9.6%). Note this is an increase from what was reported last week.
2. Recommend all County/Town citizens, employees, and employers reinforce basic public health preventative measures, as appropriate.
3. https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/community-transmission/

4. Bentonville Road RR Crossing work is Delayed.

1. According to Norfolk Southern, the planned improvements to the RR crossing site on US 340 / Bentonville Road (vicinity of the Bentonville Post Office) is delayed.
2. Norfolk Southern plans to schedule the work on a Thursday/Friday to minimize disruption to local and emergency traffic.
3. The work/improvements at the US 340 / Buck Mountain Road crossing is complete.

5. Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC)

1. The next scheduled LEPC meeting is to be determined.