Data Centers: Looming Reality or Political Distraction?

Is the foreboding arrival of data centers in our county a genuine concern or just “Chicken Little” political noise? With formerly-rural Loudoun County’s “data center alley” reaching saturation, developers, facing multi-year waits for utility hookups and a depleted menu of properties, are rapidly expanding into our closest neighboring communities, including Haymarket, Warrenton, Culpeper, Winchester, and even Middletown, which already hosts a modest data center at 8209 Valley Pike across from historic Belle Boyd plantation. Frederick County is actively considering substantially larger projects, including Tract Capital’s proposed 650-acre complex off Route 11 south of Stephens City and Winchester Gateway 2 LLC’s 105-acre data center park at Middle Rd. & Route 37. There is no reason to think we are immune.

Here in Front Royal and Warren County, we already have robust power transmission lines—500kV east-west and 115kV north-south toward Luray—sufficient for data centers. Further upgrades are proposed under the PJM Data Center Load Planning Initiative and Dominion proposals 671 and 672. Power generation need not be local thus power is not a limiting factor. Yet, as data center demand grows, residential power costs are rising as a consequence.

According to Data Center Dynamics, Amazon Web Services (AWS) is actively seeking data center sites in every county from NoVA to Richmond, with Warren squarely on the list. AWS has been growing its footprint outside of Loudoun for years, at least as far back as the 2016 construction of an AWS data center inside Warrenton’s Department of Defense “Site B” Training Center. In recent years in Warrenton, AWS continues to fight tooth-and-nail for a new data center on Blackwell Rd. AWS’s progress securing approvals has been marked by allegations of conflicts of interest—such as the Warrenton town manager taking a job at AWS after a special use permit was secured, though any quid-pro-quo remains unproven. Warrenton is not Warren County but it is the template to be studied to understand how developers operate.

Economic and Environmental Impacts

As interest in Warren County grows, the industry is starting to hype the alleged benefits to residents. On November 14, 2024, the FR-WC EDA hosted a “Data Center 101” forum, where consultants from Kimley-Horn promised high tax revenues, attractive architecture, and just-in-time technological solutions to issues like noise and water use. However, such promises are often speculative or fleeting, as nearby communities have learned. The real-world experience is that data centers are loud, even with noise cancellation. They guzzle water, even with closed-loop recycling. They are large and without architectural merit, even when color-striped to resemble offices. They block views and create few permanent jobs.

Warehousing, distribution, and light manufacturing are arguably better fits for the county’s industrial zones. These uses offer substantially higher job density, complement the Inland Port and I-81 shipping lanes, and have lower noise, emissions, heat output, and, critically water consumption—important given our recurring droughts and water restrictions. Furthermore, data centers, typically built by specialized national firms, provide little benefit to local construction trades and even delay local construction by monopolizing supplies like concrete.

Ongoing Attempts and Tactics

The push for data centers in Warren County is real, years old, and still ongoing. During the COVID pandemic, a major developer lobbied Front Royal Town Council members individually, using divide-and-conquer tactics to solicit support for a data center in the town boundaries. On June 1, 2022, a Town of Front Royal Planning Commission considered allowing by-right data centers at the Avtex property and an area adjacent to Shenandoah Shores Road and Progress Drive. The latter area is close to homes, schools and farms (and, based on recent surveyor marking and REC Power activity, remains an active target.) On June 27, 2022, the Town Council voted for data centers to be by SUP (Special Use Permit) only.

Also, in 2022, the 77-acre Rushmark property at 522 and Rockland Rd. was initially proposed as a data center site. Thus, on September 14, 2022, the Planning Commission voted, with no dissent, to allow data centers by-right in the industrial zone. The BOS vote on January 3, 2023 overturned the by-right zoning change (for the time being), prompting Rushmark to pivot to warehousing and distribution, though it could have pursued a conditional use permit.

Future boards (and Town Councils) could easily revisit the issue and flip to by-right. In fact, developers are banking on it. They play the long game, working a portfolio of properties. As long as some of them are “moving forward” each year, they make their numbers.  And with data centers encroaching on all sides of Warren County, one can assume they are lobbying officials and closely watching our elections.

This April, the same prominent attorney representing AWS for Blackwell Road in Warrenton curiously took on a much smaller client right here in Warren County to advocate for intentionally vaguely defined “training facilities” in the agricultural zone of the entire county. Could this seemingly benign concept have been a stalking horse for future data centers elsewhere in our county? Perhaps that is a bridge too far. But recall that Amazon does have a data center within a “training facility” at “Site B” in Warrenton. And the developers are getting quite clever at finding loopholes.

The Tax Revenue Mirage

The promise of substantial tax revenue from data centers is often illusory. Federal data centers, like the FBI Federal Records Complex at 2117 Millwood Pike in Frederick County, generate zero local tax revenue, according to a Frederick County supervisor. Some private data centers, such as the Brickyard Data Center at 9905 Godwin Drive in Manassas, have exploited loopholes to avoid equipment and machinery taxes, instead paying only negligible franchise taxes. Others routinely challenge assessments per megawatt and equipment depreciation schedules. In Loudoun County, tax lawyers and consultants secured over $1 billion in reductions for data centers in 2023, contributing to Loudoun’s massive budget deficit. In practice, counties that welcomed data centers have seen citizens’ tax burdens rise due to inflated revenue projections, successful tax suits, and underestimated infrastructure costs stemming from the need for additional roads and fire and rescue resources.

Tourism and Preservation

Warren County’s greatest economic assets are its scenic beauty, world-famous views, recreational and agritourism options, and our close proximity to national parks and forests. The tourism economy is a tremendous opportunity but vastly underleveraged. Opening the door to data centers would undermine our county’s growing appeal as a refuge from urban sprawl. Rather, remaining a rare hold-out against data centers in a state increasingly cluttered by monolithic concrete eyesores could boost the county’s tourism revenue and distribute the economic benefits throughout the local economy rather than to just a few national tech giants.

On local social media channels, some posts have suggested that we can “preserve” Warren County in part by embracing zoning restrictions that vary according to magisterial district, meaning data centers could exist in certain parts of the county (just not theirs). Such a compromise would be an unnecessary retreat from our current position of strength and unity, and repeat fatal mistakes seen in other counties.  Divide and conquer is how Loudoun fell. Once the door is open, it is only a matter of time before data centers are a fixture in all districts of the county. We should listen to and respect the collective wisdom of residents and officials who moved here specifically for Warren’s natural beauty. They bring the lived experience of this this dynamic, recognize the warning signs, and are determined not to repeat them.

Vigilance and Community Engagement

At a more skeptical Data Center Community Forum in Front Royal on May 10, 2025, public officials from Warrenton, Fauquier, and Prince William County, who felt their communities had been snowed or steamrolled by data center developers, sternly warned Warren County citizens about the secrecy, loopholes, and deceitful tactics used by some data center developers. Their message: remain vigilant, hold your officials and candidates to account, and demand clear positions on data center development in specific locations. Far from being “Chicken Little”, the push for data centers in Warren County is real and relentless. The community’s best defense is unity, vigilance, and a clear-eyed understanding of what’s at stake: everything.

Written in my capacity as a private citizen expressing a personal opinion.

John Stanmeyer
Shenandoah District
Warren County, VA

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