Groundhog Day: Punxsutawney Phil ignores the experts

Groundhogs have been said to predict spring weather for hundreds of years, but Punxsutawney Phil (and his predecessors) has been doing it professionally for 136 years.

He isn’t all that accurate, but what do they know?

According to Live Science, Pennsylvania’s star of the Feb. 2 festival has been right about 39 percent of the time.

According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, Phil cast a shadow 108 times on Feb. 2, which heralds six more weeks of winter. He has also predicted 20 early springs. The club doesn’t have records for Phil’s predictions for some years before 1899, and Phil didn’t make any predictions in the war years of 1942 and 1943.

However, checking Phil’s prediction against weather records indicates that his predictions have been correct about 39 percent of the time. But if you take his predictions for an early spring (when he doesn’t cast a shadow), he has a 47 percent accuracy rate. Human weather analysts claim an accuracy rate of 60 percent.

However, Punxsutawney Phil’s Inner Circle claims a 100 percent accuracy rate.

Hibernating animals have been associated with Feb. 2 and the length of winter for centuries. The special date of Feb. 2 is known as Candlemas, a celebration of the presentation of Jesus in the Temple. According to ancient lore, you don’t need a hibernating animal to predict the weather. The date alone will do it. Here is a common rhyme that describes the scheme:

If Candlemas Day be fair and bright, winter will have another fight. If Candlemas Day brings clouds and rain, winter won’t come again.