Spanberger, Earle-Sears Deadlocked in Tight Virginia Governor’s Race, New Poll Finds

Democratic former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears are in a neck-and-neck race for Virginia governor, according to the first Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of the 2025 election. Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by a razor-thin margin, 42% to 41%, with 4% of voters supporting another candidate and 13% undecided, the survey found.

With 10 months to go before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race “is tight overall, but significant demographic differences are emerging”, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Candidates in Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial contest former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Prince William (left) and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, R (right). (Spanberger photo by Charlotte Rene Woods/Virginia Mercury, Earle-Sears photo by Ned Oliver/Virginia Mercury)

Kimball noted that Earle-Sears has strong support among male voters, who favor her 52% to 37%, and white voters, who back her 50% to 35%. Spanberger, on the other hand, leads among women, 47% to 31%, as well as older voters over 70 and younger voters under 30, who support her 46% to 43% and 43% to 33%, respectively.

Both women are currently the only declared candidates for their parties in Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial race. Earle-Sears appears poised to secure the Republican nomination after endorsements from Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Attorney General Jason Miyares.

On the Democratic side, however, the race could expand, as U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott, D-Newport News, has openly mused about running. Meanwhile, former GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman is considering a bid for governor or lieutenant governor as an independent candidate.

Thursday’s survey shows little change in the dynamics of the Virginia gubernatorial race since a September poll by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, which found Spanberger and Earle-Sears tied at 39%, reflecting a consistently tight contest as the 2025 election approaches.

The new poll further highlights significant voter dissatisfaction with the economy, as 51% of respondents feel their financial situation is worse than it was four years ago. Only 27% believe their situation has improved, and 22% feel it has stayed the same.

“Among those who feel their economic situation is worse than four years ago, 56% think the state is headed in the right direction and 56% have a favorable view of the Governor,” Kimball said.

“Additionally, 66% of those who feel they are worse off than four years ago have an unfavorable view of President Biden, suggesting they may be blaming the president rather than Governor Youngkin for their current economic situation.”

Youngkin, who is term-limited, remains popular among Virginia voters, with a 48% favorable rating and 35% unfavorable.

Both gubernatorial candidates are less well-known to voters: Spanberger has a 38% favorable rating and 21% unfavorable, with 24% neutral and 17% unfamiliar. Earle-Sears holds a 33% favorable rating and 22% unfavorable, while 27% are neutral and 18% unfamiliar.

Voters are evenly split on President-elect Donald Trump, with 47% holding a favorable view and 47% unfavorable. President Joe Biden fares slightly worse in Virginia, with a 43% favorable rating and 50% unfavorable.

The poll shows a majority of voters (59%) believe Virginia is headed in the right direction, while 41% think the state is on the wrong track. The economy is the top issue for Virginia voters (38%), followed by housing affordability (14%), healthcare (10%), education (8%), and threats to democracy (8%).

Additionally, 56% of voters agree that climate change could be a factor in the recent heavy snowstorms that disrupted parts of the state, while 44% disagree.

The Emerson College Polling survey, conducted Jan. 6-8, included 1,000 registered Virginia voters and has a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points. Data were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region.

by Markus Schmidt, Virginia Mercury

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