Spanberger Saw a Path to Four House Flips. Democrats Have Won Two

Just six months ago, Virginia Democrats hoped a new congressional map would help them capture 10 of the state’s 11 U.S. House seats. Instead, they went into Tuesday’s midterm election under the existing boundaries and flipped two Republican-held districts, with a possible third pickup still undecided Wednesday afternoon.

The results fell short of what Democrats had sought through redistricting and landed at the low end of what Gov. Abigail Spanberger had suggested was possible even without new maps. In August, she told WTOP that strong turnout could help Democrats flip the 1st, 2nd, 5th and 6th districts.

But when the dust settled, Democrats ousted Republican incumbents in the first two, trailed in the 5th and lost the 6th.

Asked whether the time, money and political capital spent on redistricting had been a mistake, Spanberger acknowledged that the debate around new congressional lines had overshadowed parts of her affordability agenda during the General Assembly session earlier this year.

But she still credited Democratic candidates and local party organizations for delivering two victories.

“What I always knew would be the case is that we would flip seats in Virginia,” Spanberger told reporters on a Zoom Wednesday morning. “I’m proud of the fact that we flipped the 1st and the 2nd.”

Spanberger also pointed to Democratic gains in districts where Republicans won or remained ahead. She said every locality in the 5th, 6th and 9th districts had shifted toward Democrats compared with 2024, crediting candidates for listening to voters and addressing their concerns.

Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax, said he remained confident Democrat Tom Perriello would deliver a third pickup in the 5th District. Spanberger said the race was still too close to call.

First-term U.S. Rep. John McGuire of Goochland, the Republican incumbent, declared victory at a watch party in Charlottesville late Tuesday night, while Perriello urged election officials to count every remaining ballot. The Associated Press had not called the race by Wednesday afternoon.

Virginia Elections Commissioner Steve Koski cautioned that the state does not declare winners before results are certified, even as news organizations and analysts weigh whether to call close contests such as the one in the 5th District.

“From our perspective, all race results remain pending until final certification,” Koski said in a text message.

The Virginia Board of Elections is scheduled to certify the results Dec. 7.

Stephen Farnsworth, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Mary Washington, said Democrats had reason to celebrate their gains under the existing map.

“A net gain of two seats is a good night for Democrats, and three seats would have been an exceptional night for Democrats,” he said.

Farnsworth said President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and economic concerns hurt Republicans in competitive districts. Candidates who distanced themselves from the president risked alienating his supporters, while those who embraced him faced voters unhappy with his administration.

Where Democrats broke through

In the 1st District, Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor defeated Republican U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman of Westmoreland  51.04% to 48.72% out of roughly 406,300 votes cast, according to unofficial returns.

Wittman had represented the district since 2007. Trump carried it in 2024, but Spanberger won 51% there in last year’s governor’s race.

In her victory statement, Taylor renewed her calls for congressional term limits and a ban on stock trading by members of Congress.

“Tonight, we sent a message: people are sick and tired of the corruption, and they are ready for change,” Taylor said.

In the Virginia Beach-centered 2nd District, former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria reclaimed a seat she lost to Republican Jen Kiggans in 2022.

Luria won 53.06% to Kiggans’ 44.56% out of roughly 336,360 votes cast. Independents Matt Baker and Bishop Staten received 1.36% and 0.89%, respectively.

Luria said in a statement Tuesday evening that Hampton Roads voters wanted leaders willing to challenge Trump when his policies hurt Virginia.

Democratic Party of Virginia Chair Lamont Bagby cited Luria’s work for military families and veterans during her previous two terms in Congress, along with her service on the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Former Republican Del. Tim Anderson of Virginia Beach pointed to the political climate in both elections. Luria lost in 2022 while Joe Biden was president, he noted, while Kiggans lost with Trump back in the White House.

Anderson argued the backlash that helped Kiggans win four years ago worked against her Tuesday.

Democrats also posted strong Election Day results statewide. U.S. Sen. Mark Warner won a fourth term with about 61% of the vote, defeating Republican Bert Mizusawa by roughly 22 percentage points.

Voters also approved all three proposed constitutional amendments, protecting reproductive rights, guaranteeing marriage equality and automatically restoring voting rights after incarceration.

A third pickup remains in play

In the 5th District, McGuire led Perriello 50.22% to 47.98% out of roughly 360,200 votes cast, according to unofficial returns. Independent Cooke Harvey received 1.6%.

“This was a tough race, but by the grace of God we won!” McGuire said in a statement.

Perriello won the seat in a 2008 upset but lost his reelection bid two years later. Republicans have held it since, although the district’s boundaries have changed considerably.

Trump carried the district by 12 percentage points in 2024, and McGuire won his first term by 15 points that year.

The 5th District joined the 1st and 2nd as a focus of late Democratic campaign efforts, with Perriello trying to repeat his 2008 victory.

Rick Buchanan, the outgoing 5th District Republican Committee chair and an outspoken McGuire critic, blamed the close result on the congressman’s failure to energize local Republicans and heal divisions within the party.

“He will stand out on the side of a road behind a big sign and wave for hours, but he did not mend any fences,” Buchanan said in a phone interview.

David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg, attributed the tight race to Perriello’s strength as a candidate, McGuire’s campaign weaknesses and voters’ economic concerns and dissatisfaction with Trump.

Richards said Democrats would have trouble recreating those circumstances in 2028.

“I think the 5th is stuck with McGuire for a while now, but the Republicans would do well to buy a little insurance and get someone in there who is a better candidate for 2028,” he said. “I expect a primary challenge against McGuire after this poor performance.”

Will Democrats try to redraw the map again?

Virginia voters approved a congressional redistricting amendment in April, but the Supreme Court of Virginia struck it down in May, leaving the existing boundaries in place.

The proposed map would have created 10 Democratic-leaning districts. Under the lines used Tuesday, Republican U.S. Rep. Ben Cline of Botetourt defeated Democrat Beth Macy in the 6th, another district Spanberger had identified as a potential pickup.

Asked Wednesday whether she would rule out another attempt at mid-decade redistricting, Spanberger described this year’s amendment as a temporary response to Republican-led map changes in Texas and other states.

Farnsworth said Democrats were likely already preparing for another amendment that could change congressional boundaries before the next presidential election.

He said “2028 is a question mark, because we’re not even certain where the lines will be two years from now.”

Find the election results for all of Virginia’s congressional districts here. 

By Markus Schmidt, Virginia Mercury

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