Opinion
Transportation: Past, Present, & Future
Late last month, General Motors announced that GM would aim to sell only zero-emission cars and trucks by 2035. That’s only 15 years away. I have to admit I was shocked. While hybrid and electrical cars are here, it appears that now they are here to stay. It made me think back to a little more than a century ago, when we changed from real horse-power to vehicles with an internal combustion engine.
Humans and horses had been in partnership for millennia. But word back when we moved from 4 legged horses to internal combustion horsepower was positive: automobiles were cleaner, could travel faster, farther, and required less upkeep. Consider that horse manure created real problems, especially for townspeople. A 1,000-pound horse can produce up to 50 pounds of raw waste per day. Horses often relieve themselves so there was no telling when and where. Road apples were just a part of life, and that drew flies, mosquitoes, etc. This made for contamination of groundwater and caused typhoid fever to spread. Let’s not forget the smell, either. In addition, disposing of a dead horse was not an easy task. While this change to cars had its issues, like badly rutted roads and lack of convenient fueling stations (abundant now), it happened all the same. I am sure that the next transition to electric cars will happen, too.
Please know that I love riding a nice calm horse on a beautiful day; I wish I had been able to do more of it when I was younger. While horses have not disappeared, watering troughs, hitching posts and road apples have. But change happens, whether we want it to or not.
Sometimes change leaves long lasting, ugly, unhealthy, dangerous, and even deadly marks. In the 20th century, companies would set up factories, and when no longer profitable, simply closed the doors and walked away. Frequently, these companies moved to other countries with cheaper labor and less regulation. Some went bankrupt. But walk away they did, leaving all sorts of dangerous chemicals and structures behind along with the newly unemployed. This made long term problems for citizens and for local governments. Remember Love Canal and the houses built upon cancerous soil? Google Superfund sites and it will all come back to you. Warren County has several such sites, like Avtex Fibers, Allied Chemical, etc. There are 8 in all. Let’s not forget this region has had issues with coal mining, and coal ash ponds, too.
What does this small tour of history tell us? Change happens. That’s nothing new. What’s changing in the near future? We will be driving more electric cars. The air will be cleaner. Internal combustion engines will not go away totally. I’m guessing that some local deliveries might well require a more powerful gasoline engine. At the very least, they will remain as a hobby, just like some of us still ride horses or drive horse drawn carriages.
Fewer internal combustion engines mean there will be less demand for gasoline and gas stations. Gasoline is a carcinogen, a pollutant. That’s putting it mildly. What do gasoline stations have underground? They have great big tanks to hold the gasoline. All tanks leak, eventually. As demand for gasoline decreases, so will the demand for gasoline stations. No doubt, some gas station folks will lock the door and walk away once profit permanently disappears. By the time the tanks begin to break down and cause a problem, the humans involved with that particular station will be long gone. It will be up to the local governments and citizens to deal with the problems.
Change is coming. Yeah, I’ve already mentioned that, haven’t I? Well, what can be done to manage this risk? The nation will likely be dotted with abandoned gas stations with untended tanks in the not far-off future. Groundwater will suffer. There will be increased risk of fire. Indeed, forest fires on the West Coast left a haze in our air, over 3,000 miles away. A refinery fire in the Midwest would dirty our air, also. Accidents will happen. For one thing, I don’t think there is any real need to allow any more gas stations here in Warren County or perhaps anywhere. There’s rarely even a line at the local pumps. Gas stations are plentiful and competition at the pumps is robust. But have no doubt; some of these tanks will be abandoned in the years to come. There is no need to add more gas stations.
Next, consider how to handle the gas stations that already exist. Right now, they serve a purpose. They make a profit. They pay taxes and employ people. All well and good. But those huge gasoline tanks underground will still be there when we plug in our vehicles instead of filling them up. What is the next right thing to do to manage this change to electric cars? Any ideas? I sure hope so!
PJ Payne
Warren County, Virginia