‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Fallout: At Forum, Spanberger and Earle-Sears Clash Over Medicaid

Virginia Republican gubernatorial hopeful Winsome Earle-Sears downplayed possible cuts to health care caused by President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” Monday evening in a rare face-off with her rival, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, ahead of this fall’s statewide elections.

Gubernatorial candidates Democrat Abigail Spanberger (left) and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears (right) at separate events in August 2025. (Photos by Charlotte Rene Woods/Virginia Mercury

Speaking at a virtual forum focused on Virginians with disabilities, Earle-Sears said the new law’s negative impacts on patients and hospitals were overstated and argued the state had sufficient reserves to weather any problems.

“We’re not trying to make anyone’s life any harder,”  the former Marine and business owner said. Earle-Sears currently serves as the state’s lieutenant governor.

Spanberger, a former CIA intelligence officer and Congressional representative, called the bill “catastrophic” and accused the lieutenant governor of ignoring the bill’s impacts in Virginia.

“We can only fix or address or try to mitigate the harms of problems we are willing to admit,” she said.

The forum, hosted by disability advocacy nonprofit Arc of Virginia and other groups, marked the first and possibly only time during the campaign that all six candidates for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general appeared at the same event. Early voting in the races begins Friday.

Democrats hold an edge in most polling of the races, but the contests show tightening margins. A Virginia Commonwealth University poll released last week showed Spanberger with a 9-point lead over Earle-Sears among registered voters, down 3 percentage points since earlier this summer. The September VCU poll found Democrat attorney general nominee Jay Jones leads Republican incumbent Jason Miyares by a 6 percentage point margin, while Democratic lieutenant governor hopeful Ghazala Hashmi holds a 4-point edge over Republican John Reid.

The candidates addressed questions on topics ranging from voting rights to housing in two-minute segments that avoided fireworks or direct conflict.

Earle-Sears cast doubt on Spanberger’s warnings that the giant reconciliation bill, which Trump signed into law on July 4, would cost Virginia hospitals $26 billion. The lieutenant governor noted that the total came across 14 years —“that’s how they came up with such a large number,” Earle-Sears said.

The Republican said she would create a new “one stop shop for all things Medicaid,” including adding case workers to help people with disabilities navigate new work requirements required by the federal law.

On the record: Winsome Earle-Sears

“I think the last thing you want to do when you’re trying to find help is to have to go through a lot of hoops,” Earle-Sears said.

But Democrats and many independent analysts, including the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, have said the new law creates myriad rules that will effectively reduce Medicaid enrollment, pointing to recent examples in Georgia and Arkansas.

The two candidates gave differing answers on whether they would reverse Virginia’s permanent  disenfranchisement of all people convicted of felonies. Virginia is the only state with such a rule that can only be reversed on a case-by-case basis by the governor, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. Earle-Sears stopped short of endorsing a proposed state constitutional amendment that would allow people convicted of felonies to vote after serving their prison sentences.

“I’m looking for second chances,” Earle-Sears said, citing her work as director of a prison ministry and homeless shelter. “But I am not for maybe rapists, pedophiles — certain felonies. I don’t think we’re going to look kindly on that. Now, other felonies for sure we will take a look at.”

Spanberger endorsed Virginia Democrats’ proposed amendment, which the legislature is set to vote on for a second time next year before potentially heading to voters in November 2026.

On the record: Abigail Spanberger

Earle-Sears and Miyares trumpeted their work in office alongside Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is limited to a single consecutive term by Virginia’s constitution, on initiatives like Right Help Right Now, a bipartisan plan that aims to quickly deploy mental health services to people in crisis. Miyares also took credit for declining crime rates and overdose deaths.

“I’m going to make your safety as a Virginia my top priority because no Virginia should ever be looking over their shoulder in fear,” Miyares said.

Trump’s policies surfaced a number of times, usually at the prompting of the trio of Democrats. Jones said he foresaw a heavier role for Virginia’s attorney general, saying Trump had gutted federal oversight of civil rights, consumer protection and public health.

“Virginia will have to step in where the Trump administration refuses to protect our citizens,” he said.

The Virginia Mercury’s 2025 elections questionnaire: attorney general

Hashmi and Jones warned that Trump’s move to shut down the U.S. Department of Education threatened the office’s investigations of allegations of discrimination. Hashmi said she was working with stakeholders from the disability community on legislation that would address the federal changes, although she did not provide details.

Miyares predicted federal enforcement of the Individuals with Disabilities Act and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 would be transferred to the U.S. Department of Justice.

“I’m confident there’s still going to be a heavy robust role in the federal government to make sure that Section 504 plans remain robust and protected,” he said.

Other elements of the forum had a less partisan tinge.

Both Reid and Hashmi said they would focus attention on making sure the needs of people with disabilities were front and center in disaster planning.

“As lieutenant governor, I will not be putting in legislation, but you can count on me to use the gavel and the bully pulpit — something that I’m pretty adept at — to try to draw attention to the issues that you care about,” said Reid, a conservative talk radio host and former TV reporter.

Both gubernatorial hopefuls agreed on the need to create more housing. Spanberger argued in favor of an extension of a pilot eviction prevention program and a bolstering of state affordable housing funds. Earle-Sears said she would work to cut red tape to incentivize development and said the eviction diversion pilot would discourage landlords from renting out homes.

The candidates for attorney general are set to meet in a Oct. 16 debate hosted by the Virginia State Bar. Reid and Hashmi have yet to schedule a debate, with Reid accusing his rival of turning down repeated offers to meet on stage. Spanberger and Earle-Sears will meet again on the debate stage at Norfolk State University on Oct. 9, their only head-to-head match up on the books before Election Day.

by Ben Paviour, Virginia Mercury

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