College Football 2026: You Can Taste the Excitement!

It’s that time of year again! Here’s some analysis of the hot topics governing our favorite sport, where miracles happen, NIL rules, the portal spin, and Congress is somehow involved. You ain’t seen bad yet – but it’s coming.

A Personal Prologue: From Annapolis to the Mountain Top

In 2018, I watched a Navy home game in Annapolis, Maryland. Navy was hosting Indiana. The Hoosiers are a Big Ten program with a budget that could swallow the entire Midshipmen athletic department and still have room for a yacht. Lightning struck. The final score: Navy 37, Indiana 29. The normally reserved Navy crowd was jubilant, and history was made. Time travel forward seven years and enter another dimension – The Twilight Zone. [Photo by Lisa & Tommy Miller of New Bern, NC]

Indiana goes undefeated and wins the National Championship. And they won it in style, crushing Oregon and Alabama while riding a Heisman-winning hero into the history books to become the first 16-0 national champion in the modern era. The same Indiana that couldn’t beat Navy in 2018 is now hoisting trophies and making SEC fans question the world they live in. And that’s just the opening act.

Change Is the Only Constant Variable

College football in 2026 is not the sport we knew a decade ago. It’s a full-blown free-agency league wearing a mascot costume.

Spring football was once a 15-practice tune-up and a chance to develop depth and integrate freshmen. Now it’s an annual program reset with new players and new coordinators uniting for the first time. Buying into the program is a thing of the past. It’s one and done. You better flash dollars to keep your current players happy or your rival will poach them. The coach’s job now is to go out and build their all-star cast with the money at hand and scramble to teach them the plays by September. The team you have this year will largely trade out wholesale by next season. There is no loyalty anywhere. Neither from players nor coaches. Everybody migrates to the tune of the dollars. There were 33 new coaches in FBS this year. Six new coaches in the SEC alone. In the words of Texas Coach Steve Sarkisian, “Adapt or die. There’s a reason dinosaurs aren’t here anymore.”

Hoosier daddy? The University of Indiana: What a Cool Season

The Hoosiers are national champions, and the sport is still trying to figure out how Curt Cignetti stepped out of James Madison and lifted a program from the bottom of the Big Ten to the top of the sport in two seasons. Miraculous. I see a ‘Rudy’ inspirational movie in our future for sure. We’ll see if they can sustain the momentum, but wow, what an accomplishment. Cignetti’s defense has lost cornerstone pieces, and the offense lost a Heisman QB. However, the real force is Coach Cignetti. His clutch decision-making and play calling won the national championship. He seems to have a way of willing success wherever he goes. I find myself pulling for him. Can’t help it. Look for these guys to sustain success.

Clemson is No Longer an Elite Program

Last summer, I predicted Clemson would be playoff-bound. Dabo was loaded with talent. What happened? LSU beat them up on day one, and we didn’t hear anything else from them.

Dabo Swinney is one of two active coaches with 2 national title rings, and he’s the last of the old-school program builders still fighting the tide of change. This year, he signed 10 transfers – the most he’s ever taken from the portal and re-hired his ole offensive coordinator, Chad Morris, from the 2011–2014 Clemson era. That’s not going to be enough to do the trick. Clemson only plays 2 ranked teams this fall. For whom the bell tolls will be clear to all on 5 September when the Tigers of Death Valley visit the Tigers of Death Valley. Dabo will need a nod from God if the kickoff is 7 pm in Baton Rouge. Most visiting teams don’t survive that. A month later, hurricane sirens will be blaring in Clemson. Dabo must beat one of them. Owen two and the playoffs vanish.

 King of the Hill – BIG TEN or THE SEC? The SEC was once considered the best conference in college football by a wide margin. From 2006 to 2022, the conference won 13 national championships. That includes seven straight from 2006 to 2012. The SEC was clearly the best in the business. But what have you done for me lately? The Southeastern Conference hasn’t placed a team in the title game since 2022. Even Paul Finebaum says the Big Ten is the best conference right now. The SEC’s playoff record against outside competition over the past three seasons is 3-7, including absolute beatdowns for Bama and Tennessee at the hands of the last two Big Ten champions, Ohio State and Indiana. In bowls and playoff games last season, the SEC went 2-7. Herbstreit and Finebaum predict Notre Dame and Texas this year. That said, I think the SEC will resurface and take the belt in the persona of LSU. Lane has got some serious talent down there in the Bayou.

The Eyes of Texas are upon you: Longhorns or Aggies

Both the Longhorns and Aggies enter 2026 with arguably their best rosters in the last decade, and both are flush with cash – boasting the most NIL money in the sport. Texas A&M is fresh off a disappointing first-round playoff loss to eventual runner-up Miami. And last season was the first time in three years that the Longhorns watched the playoffs from the couch. Both teams face brutal schedules this fall. Texas made its intentions crystal clear in the portal. Steve Sarkisian surrounded quarterback Arch Manning with top-shelf transfer receivers and running backs, including NC State’s scatback Hollywood Smothers. Then Sarkisian shocked the college football world by firing his defensive coordinator and hiring veteran play-caller Will Muschamp. The message from Austin is unmistakable: the time is now. On 27 November, Coach Mike Elko will have the ‘Home of the Twelfth Man’ rocking. The Horns are set to show up in College Station for a big-stakes game of ‘Texas Hold ’em.’ Winner takes all – to the playoffs.

The NCAA Goes to Washington

Kirby Smart said, “The term student-athlete is no longer in our lexicon.” Everyone wants the chaos in college sports to end. Spending is off the rails. Olympic and non-revenue sports are staring at insolvency. Athletes are transferring freely, cashing NIL checks, and suing the NCAA for additional eligibility. President Trump established a commission on college and signed an executive order directing the NCAA to establish transfer restrictions, eligibility caps, and NIL guardrails by August 1, 2026, or face federal funding cuts. Unreal. Blending antitrust law, Title IX implications, state NIL statutes, and broadcast economics is a challenge unique to college athletics – a sport that somehow managed to become a multi-billion-dollar industry while technically being an amateur endeavor. When the ‘student athlete’ makes more money than the coaches – which one is going to run extra laps after practice?

Lane’s World: The Portal Doctor in da Bayou

Lane Kiffin captivates and frustrates in equal measure. I love him. He thrives in the spotlight and wins wherever he goes. There’ll be no shortage of spotlight in September when Dabo, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss come to call. That’s NCAA Football’s most daunting September schedule. I can’t wait till Lane’s return to Oxford. Trinidad Chambliss is the best QB in the country, and Lane knows it. He recruited him. But Lane has one of the best Defenses in the country, anchored by a senior linebacker who’s dating Lane’s daughter. Hoddy Toddy, God almighty, the game in Oxford is going to be madness. Can you imagine the swirl of emotions in Lane’s head after leading Ole Miss to prominence and suddenly leaving his team on the eve of the playoffs? The lure of those rich recruiting grounds in Louisiana was more than he could bear. He was clearly playing futures.

So how will it turn out? Well, for starters, Lane Kiffin’s 2026 LSU squad features serious talent: 40 big-time transfers, including 14 blue-chip additions headlined by former Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt. That’s about as good as it gets. Oh, and Ed Orgeron has returned to LSU as a special assistant under Kiffin to lure talent. Great move. Given LSU’s all-star lineup, Lane should contend right away. After all, he is the master of blending veterans with newcomers and building chemistry in short order. In Baton Rouge, he must establish a winning standard fast in a place known for short attention spans & championship dreams. If LSU survives September, the Lane Train will go all the way.

The Endless CFP Debate: Nobody Agrees on Anything

Power 4 is really a Power 2 (SEC & Big 10) and a Lesser 2 (Big 12 & ACC). That’s where all the NIL All Stars are congregating, which doesn’t allow the rest of the NCAA a competitive chance. The noble idea of leaving a playoff position open for non-Power 4 conferences to participate has proven futile due to budget disparities among non-Power 4 schools. James Madison and Tulane were not among the top 12 teams in the nation, and it showed. Had Notre Dame and Texas taken their rightful place, college fans wouldn’t have gone to bed early that night. The CFP isn’t perfect, but the 12-team finale is better than the ole 4 team paradigm. If the Big Ten gets their way with a 24-team playoff, the JMU and Tulane roadkill will simply multiply.

This year’s playoff games will look like last year with a 12-team lineup since the Big Ten and SEC couldn’t agree on an expansion format. You’ll notice, I didn’t say the NCAA couldn’t agree on it. The NCAA is done. The ‘Power 2’ makes the rules now. A new decision deadline — December 1 — has been set that will govern the playoffs for the 2027 season. Everyone wants to expand the field, but the how remains deeply contested.

• The Big Ten wants a 24-team College Football Playoff
• The SEC wants 16 teams
• The ACC and Big 12 are increasingly siding with the Big Ten’s 24-team proposal as it’s their only hope of post-season play – and relevance.

The best option, frankly, is a 14-team playoff — large enough to reward the best programs, small enough to keep the regular season meaningful. Push past 16 teams and you’re inviting 8-win programs to the party, which turns the regular season into a glorified exhibition. Imagine a top-10-ranked Georgia team with one loss going into its last 2 games of the regular season in late November. The Dawgs would likely rest the starters since a playoff berth is guaranteed. This mentality is exhibited annually in the NFL. It’s the reason we currently love NCAA football more than Sunday football: every game still matters in college football. Let’s keep it that way.

 Notre Dame: Our schedule guarantees 10 wins!

After throwing a fit when the CFP didn’t invite them to the party, Notre Dame secured a guaranteed spot in the 12-team field, contingent on them finishing the season ranked 12th or higher. Upon securing that sweet deal, they busied themselves generating an “embarrassingly soft” schedule featuring opponents like Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina, Boston College, and SMU while jettisoning a 100-year-old rivalry with the Trojans. Coach Marcus has a good team this year, according to the pundits. But Notre Dame has only two games against ranked opponents this fall: Miami and Clemson. If they lose both, they should not be invited to the playoffs. Full stop.

Time to Call the Realtor: Coaches on the Hot Seat

Florida State’s Mike Norvell probably won’t survive this season. Norvell’s undefeated 2023 Seminoles resembled the Bobby Bowden teams of old, but after getting snubbed from the dance, the Noles haven’t been right since. Other hot-seat coaches include Shane Beamer at South Carolina, 33-30 over five seasons, who still has a host of seasoned playmakers like LaNorris Sellers. Then there’s North Carolina’s Bill Belichick. Year one was, to put it charitably, a hot mess. If Year two collapses, hard questions need to be answered — starting with why anyone thought this was a good idea in the first place.

Frankly, the Belichick hire was savvy. Here’s why. It focuses the spotlight on Carolina. NC State is their cross-town rival. The Wolfpack have had their way with the hapless Heels since 2020, but no one is talking about them. All the hype and media attention is in Chapel Hill, hovering around Belichick and his lovely sidekick – Jordan. It’s genius, and it lures both talent and NIL donations. But don’t get carried away and think Bill will lead the Heels to a bowl game this year. Not a chance. Carolina won’t win 6 games, and Bill won’t get fired, but I’d be surprised if he sticks around for a third year of misery.

The SEC’s 9-Game Gamble: Eating Their Own

From top to bottom, the SEC is the strongest conference and has argued vehemently that they should field more teams in the playoffs because of that. The playoff selection committee signaled it would expand to 16 playoff teams and would weigh strength of schedule more heavily. So, the SEC bought into the nine-game conference schedule. But there was trickery afoot. The Big Ten suddenly changed its negotiation tactic, advocating for a playoff paradigm featuring the top 24 teams. Meanwhile, there has been no increase in the number of playoff teams, resulting in several 3-loss SEC contenders unable to make the 12-team cut. The SEC’s decision to play nine conference games merely guarantees more losses in a conference already cannibalizing itself with the hardest schedules in the country.

USC Trojans: Poised to Make Noise?

The Lincoln Riley era at USC has been characterized by great offensive play and mediocre defense. The Trojans have proven they can score on anyone. The problem is slowing the opponent. This season, Jayden Maiava returns at quarterback, and the offense will again hum with a veteran signal-caller at Riley’s disposal. Veteran coach Gary Patterson takes over as defensive coordinator to slow down the reigning elite in the Big Ten. In his 4 seasons at ‘Fight On,’ Lincoln has not won a game against a top-10 team. SC will get its chance against three of them this fall. The math is simple: USC must beat at least two of the Big Ten powers to make the playoffs; Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana are playoff teams standing in Lincoln’s path. That’s quite the gauntlet, but to be the man, you gotta beat the man. If Gary Patterson can transform the defense into something resembling competent, the Trojan offense will keep pace.

Targeting Penalty: A Reprieve from the Governor

Alas, a sensible approach to an awful rule that had long been criticized as too harsh and subjective. The new framework rewards clean players and punishes repeat offenders.

• First targeting penalty of the season: The player is disqualified from the current game but faces no carryover penalty & they may play the entire next game.
• Second targeting penalty (same season): The carryover penalty is reinstated, unless overturned on appeal to the National Coordinator of Officials.
• Third or subsequent targeting penalty (same season): A one-game suspension is imposed, unless overturned on appeal.

🔭 Prognostication

1. Can Indiana repeat? No, says I. Curt Cignetti says Watch me.
2. Is Arch Manning the real deal? Texas is betting everything on it. If they’re undefeated after Ohio State’s visit on 13 September, they’re playoff-bound.
3. Will the SEC reclaim the throne? Georgia, Ole Miss and LSU are the best bets, but the SEC path is strewn with potholes, including 4 powerful Big Ten teams and a Hurricane. Agreeing to 9 conference games was a mistake – but bet LSU to win it all.
4. How many teams will the ACC send to the playoffs this year? Miami is the ACC.
5. Can Lane Kiffin get LSU to the 2026 Playoffs? “Take the over.” We’ll know by the end of September.
6. What about Southern Cal? Halloween Night in the Coliseum is huge. “Beat the Buckeyes!” Look for Troy in the playoffs this year. ‘Fight On!’
7. Sunbelt Conference: Guess who’s back, back again – Billy Napier returned to the Sunbelt inheriting a CFP playoff team in James Madison and will fight it out with Clay Helton’s Georgia Southern gang for the ‘Fun Belt.’ Appalachian State patiently waits for Dowell Loggains to create an offense like he engineered in Columbia. Go Neers!
8. Which SEC team is guaranteed in the playoffs? Georgia only plays Ole Miss & Bama this season. They won’t be quite as bruised as the others by December. Bama, Texas, and Texas A&M have brutal schedules.
9. Luck of the Irish will depend a lot on Hurricane warnings set for 7 November. Herbstreit likes the Irish to win it all. Although they should be rested after an easy agenda, “Win one for Lou Holtz!” I’m just not seeing a title in South Bend.

10. Money talks: Bama is spending $44 million in 2026. But that’s not even in the top ten. Both Texas A&M and the Longhorns lead the nation at $63 million spent on human beings. The other deep-pocket contenders are Oregon, Ohio State, LSU, and USC, all hovering around $53 million at last count. Note: 18 of the top 20 spending teams are in the SEC and Big Ten. Only Miami and Notre Dame can match them. The remaining conferences in the NCAA are effectively Division 2.

College football 2026 is here. It’s chaotic, expensive, and the best time of the year. It’s trash talk time so let’s get to it.