County prepares as COVID-19 surges with new strain and vaccination rate remaining below 39%

On Thursday, August 19, Warren County Emergency Services Coordinator Rick Farrall issued a brief Situation Report (SITREP) update on a spike in COVID-19 cases in the county and a county government decision to revisit masking and other safety precautions, which he addressed in person two days earlier after being introduced during County Administrator Ed Daley’s report to the county supervisors. Here is Thursday’s written SITREP on the upsurge in COVID-19 cases and the County’s response:

1. COVID-19.
(a) As of Friday, August 13, 2021, VDH began reporting COVID-19 information in a new format; refer to the COVID-19 Vaccine Summary on the VDH website.

(b) The rate of new cases per 100,000 persons measures the level of community transmission. This rate is measured in terms of Low (<10 cases), Moderate (10-49 cases), Substantial (50-99 cases), and High (>/= 100 cases).

(c) As of today, the County’s rate of new cases per 100,000 persons is 211.6, and is considered “High” (by comparison, the State rate is 160.3, and is also considered “High”). Our percentage of PCR tests that are positive is reported at 8.7%. To note, Shenandoah County and the City of Winchester currently have slightly higher rates.

(d) Accordingly, the County updated its COVID-related policies.

(e) Recommend all County/Town citizens, employees, and employers reinforce basic public health preventative measures, as appropriate.

At Tuesday’s County Board of Supervisors meeting, Farrall elaborated on policy moves and their reasoning.

“With the Delta variant we do have an increase in cases in the county and our region,” Farrall said in opening his oral report with a graphic indicating Warren County among the majority of Virginia counties reporting increased COVID activity including cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities.

County Emergency Services Coordinator Rick Farrall updates the WC Board of Supervisors, Tuesday, Aug. 17. Below, the COVID-19 new cases update statewide. Warren, along with a majority of Virginia, is experiencing a surge in cases with the highly contagious Delta variant. Royal Examiner Photos by Roger Bianchini

He continued to describe the VDH (Va. Dept. of Health) move over the past week reporting cases per county as they would translate into a number of cases per 100,000 as a comparative tool. What such measuring accomplishes is to compare case rates between smaller communities and larger ones, for a more accurate reading of relative contamination rates on a scale of Low-Moderate-Substantial-High.

In the chart pictured above, red indicates High, orange Substantial, yellow Moderate, and blue Low. As Farrall noted, only one Virginia county (Bath) is currently in a low transmission rate, and the map indicates only one Moderate-rated county (Richmond Co. toward the Eastern shore) as well.

Consequently, he said it was being recommended that Warren County “reinstate some additional precautions” that had been previously utilized in the earlier days of the pandemic. That includes mask-wearing outside one’s workstation and some testing parameters for unvaccinated or symptomatic employees.

The county emergency services coordinator noted the start of public schools this week, with Randolph-Macon Academy’s middle and high schools and Christendom College students returning for classes the coming week. Those variables, coupled with the just-completed Warren County Fair, Farrall observed, could contribute to any continued spike in cases here coming “in the next couple of weeks” before flu season arrives in the fall.

Particularly concerning is Warren County’s continued relatively low vaccination rate, coupled with skepticism among certain local sectors of masking and social distancing requirements. Reported as holding at 38% to 38.2% in recent weeks, a Friday, August 20th check of the Virginia Department of Health website showed Warren County “skyrocketing” to a 38.9% fully vaccinated rate, or 15,627 of the county’s approximate 40,000 population; with another 6% (to a 44.9% total) with at least one vaccine dose. As Royal Examiner recently reported, COVID-19 is now being referenced as “a pandemic of the unvaccinated” with 98% to 99% of new cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities coming among those not fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.

In Farrall’s handout accompanying his oral report, Warren County’s cases per 100,000 over the week of August 8-14 were at 215, the high for the six-jurisdiction Lord Fairfax Health District (LFHD). The range for the other five jurisdictions was between 182.2 (Shenandoah Co.) and 78.7 (Clarke Co., the only one with a Substantial rank, the other five rated High). Statewide, the rate per 100,000 stood at 144.4 cases per week.

As for vaccination rates in the LFHD, Warren’s 38.9% was second-lowest to Page’s 37.3%. The other four jurisdictions were between 43.3% (Shenandoah) and 51.7% (Clarke), with Virginia at 55.3% statewide.

Farrall also reported an update of the County, Town, and Public School System lists of “critical” or “essential” employees, which he said, “Will come into play if we have to quarantine unvaccinated employees”. He told the board that working in conjunction with Dr. Greene of the Lord Fairfax Health District, periods of quarantine may be adjusted somewhat for those “essential” governmental employees.

County Emergency Services is working with Valley Health and the Health Department to reestablish COVID-19 testing sites, Farrall reported. The CDC is forecasting that booster shots for those fully vaccinated for six months or longer will become available by the fall. The CDC is working to have those booster shots fully approved by the FDA (Food & Drug Administration) by their release.

Train Crossings
In his report and or written SITREP, Farrall also noted the reopening of Happy Creek Road; some train crossing work that will temporarily close some access roads; and the potential of flash flooding from rains associated with recent tropical storms moving northward in the Eastern portion of the country. As for the railroad crossing situation, Farrall reported this in a Friday afternoon release: “There is one Warren County railroad crossing closed, and one planned to be closed for railroad track and crossing repairs. Please adjust your emergency responses and travel plans accordingly.

“(a) US 340 / Buck Mountain Road. In the vicinity of Limeton Church Road, this railroad crossing is currently closed for crossing repairs and repaving. Norfolk Southern estimates the work to be completed by this Monday night (August 23, 2021), weather permitting.

“(b) US 340 / Bentonville Road. In the vicinity of the Bentonville Post Office, this railroad crossing is planned to be closed for crossing repairs and repaving. Norfolk Southern will begin this work once the Buck Mountain Road crossing is complete. This work is planned to begin next Tuesday (August 24, 2021), weather permitting.”

For Farrall’s full report and board discussion of it, see the linked County video, beginning at the 2-hour-7-minute mark.