COVID-19 Updates for County, Health District, State, Nation and Worldwide

As of midday, Wednesday, December 30, 2020, County Emergency Management Deputy Director Rick Farrall released the latest COVID-19 novel Coronavirus pandemic statistics for Warren County, the Lord Fairfax Health District of which we are a part, as well as state and national numbers. Since our last published report of December 16 numbers, Warren County counted 183 new cases (to 1321 from 1138) and saw its deaths rise to 33 from the 31 counted two weeks ago. Heading into the last day of the month and year seven-county citizens had succumbed to COVID-19 in December.

Above, file photo of County Deputy Emergency Services Director Rick Farrall updating county officials on COVID-19 numbers and measures being enacted locally and statewide to counter those numbers. Below, County Board and Emergency Management Team Chairman Walt Mabe has urged a sense of care and community in helping our families and neighbors through this health crisis. Royal Examiner File Photos by Roger Bianchini

As previously noted, through the first nine-plus months of the year Warren County had counted 12 deaths attributed to the pandemic. Now through the last three months of the year the death count has climbed by 21 as the Phase 3 surge that has hit our Lord Fairfax Health District (LFHD) continued through the holiday season. In December, LFHD cases climbed to 9,877 confirmed from the 6,357 counted at the end of November, an increase of 3,520.

If there is a silver lining, other than the arrival of a vaccine for this initial COVID-19 strain, it is that the death rate to confirmed cases has remained under the initially estimated 3% range. According to the numbers below, the national death rate to confirmed cases is 1.74%; in Virginia that rate is 1.45%; and in Warren County, it is slightly higher at 2.50% of the 1,321 total confirmed cases countywide.

According to the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC), as of January 4 at 11:45 a.m. there were 20,797,336 cases and 354,720 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. That compares to 85,229,481 cases and 1,845,408 deaths globally. So, as 2021 arrives the U.S. has accounted for about 24% of the world’s cases and 19% of its deaths with 4% of the global population. And if this reporter’s math can be trusted, those numbers reflect a 2.16% death rate globally and a 1.7% death rate nationally.

The nation hit New Year’s Day 2021 with just over 335,000 deaths attributed to the 2019 Coronavirus pandemic after crossing the 300,000 barrier in mid-December. From the above CDC numbers for midday January 4, just under 20,000 Americans have been reported dead from the COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic in the first 3-1/2 days of 2021.

Below are the county, health district, state, and national numbers for the December 30 report, mid-month on December 18, and the final day of November for comparison.

Above, the CDC’s Jan. 2, 2021 chart shows that the numbers continue to accumulate as the year has turned, with Warren County counting another 89 cases and one death since midday Dec. 30. Below a file photo from the spring 2020 surge – numbers, we have indicated 1,006 Americans may have died on Dec. 31 during the current Phase 2 surge.

1. COVID-19 Information (December 30, 2020, at 11:54 a.m.):
a. Lord Fairfax Health District: As of today (per the VDH website), there are 9,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases (Clarke 385, Frederick 3,703, Page 1,015, Shenandoah 2,186, Warren 1,321 (69 are/were hospitalized, 33 deaths attributed to the County; deaths 2.50% total cases), Winchester 1,637); the current status of these patients is unknown (admitted to hospital, discharged to home isolation/quarantine, departed the District/County).
b. Commonwealth: 4,220,943 total people tested (PCR only); 344,345 total cases [12.7% positive rate (PCR only)]; 17,910 total hospitalized; 4,984 total deaths (1.45% total cases).
c. United States: As of December 29, 2020, at 2:25 PM, there are 19,232,843 total cases and 334,029 total deaths (1.74% total cases) attributed to COVID-19.

2. COVID-19 Information (as of December 18, 2020, at 10:22 AM):
a. Lord Fairfax Health District: As of today (per the VDH website), there are 8,731 confirmed COVID-19 cases (Clarke 307, Frederick 3,169, Page 831, Shenandoah 1,843, Warren 1,138 (66 are/were hospitalized, 31 deaths attributed to the County; deaths 2.72% total cases), Winchester 1,443); the current status of these patients is unknown (admitted to hospital, discharged to home isolation/quarantine, departed the District/County).
b. Commonwealth: 3,831,683 total people tested (PCR only); 299,388 total cases [11.8% positive rate (PCR only)]; 16,684 total hospitalized; 4,598 total deaths (1.54% total cases).
c. United States: As of December 17, 2020, at 3:03 PM, there are 16,756,581 total cases and 306,427 total deaths (1.83% total cases) attributed to COVID-19.
c. United States: As of December 17, 2020, at 3:03 PM, there are 16,756,581 total cases and 306,427 deaths (1.83% total cases) attributed to COVID-19.

3. COVID-19 update as of November 30, 2020:
e. Lord Fairfax Health District: As of today (per the VDH website), there are 6,357 confirmed COVID-19 cases (Clarke 208, Frederick 2,228, Page 593, Shenandoah 1,403, Warren 859 (61 are/were hospitalized, 26 deaths attributed to the County; deaths 3.03% total cases), Winchester 1,066); the current status of these patients is unknown (admitted to hospital, discharged to home isolation/quarantine, departed the District/County).
f. Commonwealth: 3,326,327 total people tested (PCR only); 237,835 total cases [7.5% positive rate (PCR only)]; 14,619 total hospitalized; 4,062 total deaths (1.71% total cases).
g. United States: As of November 29, 2020 at 1:32 PM, there are 13,142,997 total cases and 265,166 total deaths (2.02% total cases) attributed to COVID-19.

4. Current CDC Guidance Regarding When to Quarantine/Options to Reduce Quarantine
a. New CDC guidance as of December 2, 2020.
b. Recommend everyone familiarize themselves with the updated guidance. See attached and website link below for details.
c. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/quarantine.html

5. Current VDH Social Gatherings, and Holiday COVID-19 Related Guidance
a. https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/schools-workplaces-community-locations/social-gatherings/