Local News
Governor Northam, University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute, RAND Corporation present infectious disease modeling on impact of COVID-19 mitigations in Virginia
~ Modeling suggests social distancing efforts have slowed the spread of the virus in the Commonwealth ~
RICHMOND—Governor Ralph Northam, in partnership with researchers from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute and the nonprofit RAND Corporation, released new infectious disease modeling on the impact of COVID-19 mitigations in Virginia.
Current models presented during a briefing held yesterday show that social distancing efforts beginning in mid-March have paused the growth of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Commonwealth.
While data and testing remain limited, current trends suggest that Virginia’s statewide hospital bed capacity will be sufficient in the immediate future.
“We are proud to be working with some of the top minds in the country on these projections,” said Governor Northam. “While the data is limited, we can draw a few key conclusions: First, social distancing is important, and it’s working in Virginia. Second, while we continue to work closely with our hospital systems and other health care partners to prepare for a potential surge in acute cases, we are optimistic about our statewide hospital bed capacity. Finally, it’s clear we need to be responsible about how we ease restrictions, so we can keep Virginians safe and protect public health.”
“From the beginning, Governor Northam has made it clear that everything we do must be grounded in science, public health expertise, and data,” said Secretary of Health and Human Resources Daniel Carey, M.D. “These models change every day, but we can use various models to help inform a range of outcomes we may be facing so we can make sure that Virginia is ready for all possible scenarios. Like every other state and many other countries, we are preparing for how we can move forward in a way that does not trigger another medical surge.”
Key takeaways from infectious disease models developed by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute include:
• Current social distancing efforts starting March 15 have paused the growth of the epidemic in the Commonwealth of Virginia. In this scenario, “paused” growth means that the rate of new cases is holding steady rather than increasing.
• Current trends suggest that Virginia’s statewide hospital bed capacity will be sufficient in the near future.
• Lifting social distancing restrictions too soon can quickly lead to a second wave.
To understand the impact of COVID-19 mitigations in Virginia, the UVA Biocomplexity Institute developed a model of the pandemic that incorporates disease dynamics such as transmissibility and incubation period as well as population density and social behavior. The Institute modeled five potential scenarios, exploring slowing growth vs. pausing growth with social distancing in place until April 30 and June 10 compared to no mitigation.
“Currently, it appears as if the Commonwealth of Virginia is tracking with the pause scenario, which means that the residents of Virginia are doing an excellent job with mitigation,” said Bryan Lewis, Research Associate Professor for the Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing division for the Institute. “Even without perfect projections, we can confidently draw conclusions. We know that social distancing is working and lifting restrictions too early can lead to a second surge. We will continue to improve our models as more data become available. We plan to incorporate outcomes specific by age, integrate the role of seasonality, and analyze mitigation techniques such as a Test-Trace-Isolate approach.”
The UVA Biocomplexity Institute has been on the forefront of epidemic modeling and mitigation since 2002, supporting the U.S. federal government and other countries through several epidemics, including planning for H5N1, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the MERS outbreak of 2012, and the Ebola outbreaks of 2014 and 2019. Institute researchers have worked in partnership with U.S. government agencies since early 2020 to inform evidence-based decision making for the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Several groups have produced models to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic might progress and to explore potential policy options,” said Carter Price, a senior mathematician at the RAND Corporation. “Each of these models has strengths and weakness, and they are likely to evolve as more and better data become available. We are helping the leadership of the Commonwealth of Virginia assess the different models so that policy can be made with the best available information.”
Additional information, including slides from yesterday’s briefing, are available here.
This is the full video of the briefing.
Local News
Illuminating Futures: Celebrating Achievements and Exploring Quantum Computing at ‘This is IT!’ Event
The “This Is IT!” club of Warren County, Virginia, marked another milestone as a hub for budding IT enthusiasts from diverse backgrounds. The club, which started in 2023, has quickly become a cornerstone for students interested in the ever-evolving world of information technology.
At the ‘This is IT!’ club gathering at the Samuels Public Library on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, students and community members came together to celebrate and learn. The club includes 9th to 12th-grade students from public, private, and homeschool backgrounds and is aimed to ignite curiosity and reward academic excellence in information technology and quantum computing.
The ceremony kicked off with an introduction by Melissa Chapman, an instructor involved with the club. She set the stage for a night that was not only about recognition but also about expanding young minds. “Understanding the vocabulary of quantum computing is the first step towards mastery,” Chapman remarked, highlighting the importance of foundational knowledge in this cutting-edge field.
The focal point of the evening was the guest lecture by Dr. Bruce Chesley, an aerospace engineer who adeptly connected the seemingly distant realms of space exploration and quantum computing. With palpable enthusiasm, Dr. Chesley described how quantum technologies could revolutionize our approach to exploring the cosmos. His talk made the complex topics accessible and entertaining, captivating the aspiring scientists in attendance.
Amidst the talks, the club took a moment to honor its bright young members through a scholarship awards ceremony. Scholarships were awarded to students who have shown exceptional prowess in STEM fields. These awards are a testament to the community’s support for its young learners and a major encouragement for them to pursue further education in technology. The winners were Jude O’Neal, Elijah Hambric, Jack Gillespie, Benedict Keough, Matthias Biedler, and Uli Duke.
Local News
The Apple Blossom Coronation Legacy Continues for the Historical Event
For the first time in the history of the Shenandoah Apple Bossom Festival® three consecutive generations in a family will have served as Queen Shenandoah. Susan Ford Bales, Queen in 1975, and Tyne Vance Berlanga, Queen in 2001, will be accompanying Joy Elizabeth Berlanga as she assumes her role as Queen Shenandoah XCVII.
The Crowning Ceremony entertains from regal pomp and circumstance to joyful enthusiasm of Little Maids and Pages who are ever present to serve their Queen. The youthful court interchange historical and educational facts from the British Crown to learning about a United States President – to asking, “Who has the Crown?,” and with dancing. The Queen will be crowned at the memorable Coronation celebration under the direction of Elaine B. Aikens. The Ceremony to install the new sovereign is sponsored by Morgan Orthodontics, on Friday, May 3 at 1:30 p.m.at Handley High School. President Gerald Ford crowned Susan. Susan crowned Tyne, and Joy will be crowned by her mother and escorted by her grandmother.
Susan, Joy’s grandmother, is a Virginia native and now resides in Texas. She is the daughter of President Gerald R. Ford and Betty Ford. Susan is the mother of two daughters, Tyne Berlanga and Heather Deavers, five grandchildren, Joy Elizabeth Berlanga, Cruz Vance Berlanga, Elizabeth Blanch Deavers, Jude Deavers, and Sullivan Bales, and three stepsons, Kevin, Matthew, and Andrew Bales.
Susan was raised in Alexandria, Virginia and attended Holton Arms School and the University of Kansas, where she studied photojournalism. She is the recipient of an Honorary Doctorate of Public Service degree, an Honorary Doctorate of Letters degree, and an Honorary Doctorate of Humane Letters degree. She is the author of two novels set in the Whie House, “Double Exposure: A First Daughter Mystery”, and its sequel, “Sharp Focus.”
Susan is the Ship’s Sponsor for the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), which she officially christened on November 9, 2013. On April 8, 2016, in recognition of her service as the Ship’s Sponsor, she was named an Honorary Naval Aviator by the United States Navy, becoming only the 31st American to receive this distinction. And history was made with her selection – Susan is the first woman to be chosen as an Honorary Naval Aviator.
During her high school years, Susan lived in the White House and served as official White House hostess following her mother’s surgery for breast cancer in 1974. In 1984, she and her mother helped launch National Breast Cancer Awareness Month, and Susan subsequently served as national spokesperson for breast cancer awareness. Since the founding of the Betty Ford Center in 1982, Susan worked side by side with her mother on projects at the Center and was elected to the Center’s Board of Directors in 1992. She succeeded her mother as Chairman of the Board 2005-2010, and currently serves on the board of directors of Hazelden Betty Ford Foundation.
In addition to her many charitable public service activities, Susan serves as Co-Trustee of the President Gerald R. Ford Historical Legacy, Trustee, Trustee of the Elizabeth B. Ford Charitable Trust, and the Honorary Advisory Committee of the Children’s National Medical Center.
Tyne, mother of Joy, Queen-designate, resides in Frisco, TX with her husband Hector and two children, Joy and Cruz. She serves as a marketing manager for Western Son. With a passion for community involvement, Tyne sits on multiple school booster club boards for all her children’s activities.
On Tyne’s departure as Queen she reflected, “It was easy to be kind, gracious and humble Queen when surrounded by the people of Winchester. My five-day reign as Queen Shenandoah was an occasion that will have a special place in my heart. I have formed friendships and made memories that will hopefully stay with me for a long time to come. On Sunday morning I was doing an exit interview with one of the reporters and he asked me, “If l had a daughter would I let her be Queen?” My answer was immediately “Yes, if she’s lucky enough to be given this opportunity.” Now, Tyne eagerly anticipates returning to Winchester where Joy is set to embark on a remarkable journey, echoing Tyne’s own experiences from 23 years prior. It’s truly heartwarming to be able to share this moment with both her mother and daughter.
The Queen and her family will ride in the Hang 10 Firefighters’ Parade Friday evening at 5:30 and the glo fiber Grand Feature Parade on Saturday, May 4 at 1:30 p.m. Queen-designate Joy and her family will be making appearances at Festival events during the weekend.
Tickets to Festival events are available at www.thebloom.com/events.
Community Events
Valley Chorale Announces Upcoming Spring Concerts in Middletown and Front Royal
The Valley Chorale presents “Wishing On a Song – Music in the Key of Hope”, a spring concert exploring aspirations of love, home, spirituality and compassion that unite and uplift us all. With styles ranging from light classical and sacred to vocal jazz, spirituals and pop, The Valley Chorale strives to capture the hopes that unite us.
The Valley Chorale is known throughout the Shenandoah Valley for innovation and excellence, with piano, cello and percussion accompaniment, and their concerts are often a heart-warming experience for all. They welcome babies and tots, so no need to hire a babysitter.
Tickets can be purchased on their website TheValleyChorale.org — $15 for age 21+ (free under age 21) or at the door for $17.
SATURDAY, MAY 4, 3:00 – 4:15 PM
Belle Grove Plantation (Bank Barn), 336 Belle Grove Road, Middletown, VA
SUNDAY, MAY 5, 3:00 – 4:15 PM
First Baptist Church, 14 W. 1st Street, Front Royal, VA (Community Reception to follow)
For further information, visit the website: TheValleyChorale.org: follow them on Facebook; email them at TheValleyChorale@gmail.com or call at 540-635-4842.
(From a Release by The Valley Chorale)
Local News
Warren Coalition Announces 2024 Video Contest Winners
Just before spring break, the Warren Coalition presented first-place prizes to four students for their submissions in the annual Health Video Contest. Jerry Buhl and Kenny Buhl, brothers who are both students at Warren County Middle School, won in the categories of Eating Healthy and Getting Enough Sleep, respectively. Caleb Rodman, a local homeschool student, was honored for his submission about Drinking Enough Water. Landon Marut of Front Royal Christian Academy took the top prize in the Exercise category. Each of the students received $125 in Amazon gift cards.
The contest was open to all middle school students, ages 11-14, in Warren County. Students could elect to submit a video about getting regular exercise, getting enough sleep, drinking water, or maintaining healthy eating habits. The contest was held as part of the Warren Coalition’s WAHOO (Working to Achieve Healthy Outcomes and Opportunities) program, which is funded by the Virginia Foundation for Healthy Youth. Their videos will be used as healthy living ads throughout Warren County in the late spring/early summer.
Warren Coalition is a nonprofit agency established in 1994 to help fill the gaps in health care and substance abuse awareness to the community. The Coalition began under the guidance of Warren Memorial Hospital as an outreach project, but it has since grown and was incorporated in 2001. The office is currently located in the Warren County Community Center. Their mission is to make Warren County a safe, healthy, and drug free community through many programs and in collaboration with 15+ member agencies.
Local News
Warren County Habitat for Humanity Receives Major Grant to Support Housing and Community Revitalization
Warren County Habitat for Humanity has been awarded a substantial $235,466 grant from the Susan Dewey Virginia Housing Grant. This funding will enhance their ongoing efforts to revitalize neighborhoods and provide affordable housing, with a focus on the Osage Street project.
The grant, named in honor of Susan Dewey’s 25 years of dedication at Virginia Housing, underscores a commitment to eliminating substandard housing and promoting vibrant, healthy communities. It is part of a larger $1 million initiative aimed at supporting the construction, rehabilitation, and preservation of single-family homes across the state.
Warren County Habitat for Humanity is among five affiliates chosen for this generous grant. The funds are expected to aid in covering construction costs and reducing loan expenses, making homeownership more accessible to families striving for better living conditions.
Debra Siksay, President of the local Habitat chapter, expressed her gratitude, stating, “This grant from Virginia Housing is a monumental support for our Osage Street project and other endeavors. It allows us to push forward with our neighborhood improvement plans and make a lasting impact in the community.”
The organization’s mission, deeply rooted in the values of community and hope, is to ensure that every family in Warren County has a decent, safe place to call home. The Susan Dewey Virginia Housing Grant will play a crucial role in bringing that vision to life by empowering families and fostering community development.
Residents interested in learning more about the Habitat for Humanity projects or wishing to contribute can visit the Warren County Habitat website at www.warrencountyhabitat.org or contact their office at 540-551-3232.
Warren County Habitat for Humanity continues to work tirelessly towards a world where everyone has a decent place to live, supported by community efforts and generous funding such as the Susan Dewey Virginia Housing Grant.
Local News
Blue Ridge Wildlife Center Patient of the Week: Red Fox
A quick turnaround for this lucky fox!
As the only wildlife-dedicated hospital in the Northern Virginia area, we rely on a variety of other organizations to get orphaned, injured, and ill wildlife to us for treatment from various locations.
Big thank you to the Animal Welfare League of Arlington and their skilled officers for responding to a call about a fox in distress with a trap on his neck. Their quick thinking got this fox contained, the trap removed, and the fox transported to us for further evaluation and treatment.
On intake, this fox was relatively quiet but required sedation to be fully examined. While there was initially blood seen on the fox’s paw, the only major injuries found were wounds on the neck caused by the trap. The blood was likely from the fox using his paw to scratch at the trap in an attempt to remove it.
With a long-lasting antibiotic on board as well as pain medications, this fox bounced back quickly and was moved outside to a pre-release shelter for continued healing. He quickly began digging, eating, and acting appropriately towards staff.
A few good days of food and rest, this adult fox was cleared for release by our veterinary team! We are overjoyed we were able to get this beautiful guy back to the wild:
Thank you to ALL involved in this animal’s rescue, care, rehabilitation, and release. It truly takes a village and we’re so thankful to have an amazing community dedicated to the well-being of wildlife.
It’s important to note that trapping within Arlington is illegal – if you have any information on anyone setting illegal traps in Arlington, please contact the AWLA to report information!
Looking for an easy way to help native wildlife? Become a monthly BRWC donor! For as little as $5/month, you can provide year-round, sustainable support that helps us fulfill our mission.