Poll: In Top Virginia Races, Spanberger Sustains Lead Over Earle-Sears, Miyares Edges Jones by 1 Point

A new poll released Monday, published the same day lawmakers returned to Richmond for a special session that could reshape political maps just one week before voters head to the polls, shows Democrats holding narrow leads in Virginia’s governor and lieutenant governor races.

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The survey — conducted Oct. 21–23 by the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University among 803 likely voters — found Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Republican Winsome Earle-Sears 50% to 43% in the governor’s race, with 6% undecided.

In the lieutenant governor’s contest, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, D-Richmond, holds a slim 47% to 45% edge over Republican John Reid, a conservative talk-show host, while the attorney general’s race remains a virtual toss-up, with incumbent Republican Jason Miyares leading Democrat Jay Jones by a single point, 46%-to-45%.

The single-point advantage marks a reversal from earlier polling that showed Jones up six points before the emergence of a damaging text-messaging scandal earlier this month.

According to the poll, 75% of likely voters have heard at least some coverage of Jones’ 2022 texts, and nearly half say the revelations could influence their vote. Among those aware of the reports, 56% say the messages make them less likely to support Jones, compared to 3% who say they make them more likely. Thirty-nine percent of polled voters said the scandal would not impact whether they plan to vote for Jones.

The fallout appears most severe among independents, 68% of whom said the controversy makes them less inclined to back him.

Despite the turmoil, enthusiasm among voters remains strong.

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Eighty-five percent of respondents described themselves as enthusiastic about voting, with little gap between parties — 65% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans said they were “very enthusiastic,” along with 47% of independents.

About 29% of likely voters said they had already cast ballots, including 34% of Republicans, 30% of Democrats, and 23% of independents.

Spanberger’s seven-point advantage mirrors her strength among Democrats (97%) and women (57% to 37%), as well as Black voters (84% to 6%) and college-educated Virginians (58% to 35%).

Earle-Sears leads among white voters (54% to 33%) and men (51% to 43%) and maintains 95% support from Republicans. The results mark a slight tightening since earlier this month, when Spanberger’s lead was 10 points.

Hashmi’s two-point advantage also reflects deep partisan divides. She draws 94% of Democrats and large margins among Black voters (+71) and women (+13), while Reid commands 97% of Republicans and leads among white voters (+15) and men (+10).

The two are now tied among independents (44% each) after Hashmi’s earlier 12-point lead with that group evaporated.

In the broader battle for the House of Delegates, where all 100 seats are on the ballot this year, Democrats maintain an 8-point edge on the generic ballot (51% to 43%). That margin has held steady for weeks, underscoring a modest statewide advantage for Democrats as the party seeks to defend its 2023 majority.

Voters remain sharply divided on the issues driving their choices.

Eighteen percent named threats to democracy as their top concern — matching inflation at 18% — followed by health care (11%) and immigration (9%). For Republicans, immigration (20%) and cost of living (19%) rank highest, while Democrats prioritize democracy (31%) and health care (19%). Independents split most between democracy (19%) and inflation (17%).

The poll, conducted by live interview on landlines and cell phones, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

by Markus Schmidt, Virginia Mercury

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