New ‘Heart Percentile’ Tool Estimates Long-Term Risk of Heart Disease

A new online calculator may help adults take charge of their heart health years before trouble begins. Developed by Northwestern Medicine, the tool estimates a person’s 30-year risk of developing heart disease and provides a “heart percentile” to show how their cardiovascular health compares with others of the same age and sex.

The calculator, based on guidelines from the American Heart Association (AHA), is meant for adults aged 30 to 59. It uses the AHA’s PREVENT equations — a widely accepted set of formulas designed to predict long-term heart disease risk. By entering basic health information such as blood pressure, cholesterol levels, and lifestyle habits, users receive a personalized risk score and a percentile ranking.

That percentile helps people see where they stand compared to their peers. For example, someone with a heart percentile of 80 is considered to be at higher risk than 80% of others in their age group.

Northwestern Medicine says the tool isn’t just for individual use — it’s also designed to encourage meaningful conversations between patients and their healthcare providers. By looking at long-term risk instead of just short-term problems, doctors can guide patients toward early lifestyle changes or medical interventions that may reduce risk in the future.

Senior study author Dr. Sadiya Khan reviewing a CT scan to evaluate risk of heart disease
Photo by Gr8y Productions.

“Most existing tools focus on 10-year risk, which often misses younger adults,” said Dr. Sadiya Khan, a cardiologist at Northwestern and one of the tool’s creators, in an interview with NBC News. “But heart disease doesn’t just appear overnight. This tool helps people see the bigger picture and start taking preventive steps earlier.”

Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the U.S., but many risk factors — such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol, smoking, poor diet, and lack of exercise — are preventable or manageable. Doctors hope that this new tool will help motivate people to take those factors more seriously, even if they feel healthy today.

The tool is free and easy to use, and Northwestern Medicine plans to make it widely available to clinics and patients nationwide. While it does not replace medical advice or full cardiovascular screening, it may serve as a valuable starting point for people who want to better understand and reduce their long-term heart disease risk.

“This isn’t about scaring people,” Dr. Khan added. “It’s about empowering them with knowledge — and encouraging small changes that can lead to a much healthier future.”