State Health official: Coronavirus – ‘It is a problem, not a catastrophe’

That was the message of Lord Fairfax Health District Director Colin Greene delivered during a power point briefing to the Warren County Board of Supervisors Tuesday morning, March 3.

What Greene described was essentially a flu-like disease that attacks the respiratory system leading to symptoms running the gamut of a mild, common cold to a moderate to severe flu or pneumonia. But short of those cases on the severe end of the respiratory disease spectrum, the Lord Fairfax Health Department official asserted that the most-recently discovered strain of the family of Coronaviruses is not the symptomatic horror story of Ebola or the Middle Ages “Black Plague”.

“What’s scary about it, is it’s new,” Greene continued – and he might have added, the subject of worldwide media attention and reports of cancellations or delays of sporting events and other planned activities where large gatherings of people were expected in countries with higher documented cases and/or fatalities.

Lord Fairfax Health District Director Colin Greene urged public awareness, caution without panic or obsessive behavior over the potential of a new strain of Coronavirus’s arrival at our doorstep. Photo and video by Mark Williams, Royal Examiner.

“What we’re essentially looking at is a second flu season,” Greene observed of the disease believed to primarily occur in fall and winter, with the possibility of a year-round presence.

But it is a flu season that statistics from its first, reported region of infection – China and neighboring countries – indicate has a fatality rate 200% to 400% higher than common flues. But don’t panic on that statistic either, common flues have a remarkably low fatality rate of .01% (a hundredth of 1%).

So, the fatality rate of COVID-19 – an acronym for “Coronavirus Disease 2019”, the year it was identified and labeled in China as a specific strain of a family of seven Coronaviruses – appears to be between 2% and 4%.

Greene noted the 2% number is from Chinese reports on its infections and fatalities, the 4% figure from South Korean statistics, the latter which Greene said he put more faith in from his knowledge of the respective countries’ health and disease-control institutions. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) was reporting a worldwide fatality rate of 3.4% in the first week of March.

So, while awareness and common precautions are advised to limit both your risk of being infected or your risk of infecting others with whatever it is that may have given you a runny nose, dry cough, sore throat, fever or that general feeling of un-wellness of the flu coming on, there is a good chance you just have a cold or the flu.

However, if your symptoms include difficulty breathing it is recommended to seek medical attention. But even were a doctor to tell you, you have in fact become a U.S. COVID-19 statistic, remember, you have a 96% to 98% chance of surviving that infection.

The family of viruses labeled Coronavirus were first identified in the 1960’s and are known to attack the respiratory system. The “corona” tag was given the virus from the “crown-like spikes” on the virus surfaces. Some strains have been known to pass between animal and human populations. The SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus has been identified as the cause of COVID-19.

Representation of a Coronavirus from the CDC website

Statistics assembled since COVID-19 was identified in the Wuhan Province of China just three months ago in December indicate those most at risk of severe illness from the disease are the elderly (uh oh) and those with underlying conditions that have weakened their immune systems.

As of February 28, the CDC reported 83,642 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide with 2,858 deaths; 94% of the confirmed cases were reported on mainland China. Outside of China, there were 4,691 confirmed cases at 55 locations, with 67 deaths. Online reports indicated worldwide cases were believed to have climbed to 94,250 by March 4.

So yes, be aware, be informed and be cautious – but don’t obsess or panic over the potential of this specific Coronavirus’s arrival in the U.S. and potentially, Virginia and Warren County.

And to fuel your awareness, see the 59:22 mark of Royal Examiner’s video below from the March 3 meeting of the Warren County Board of Supervisors to watch Greene’s presentation. You may also visit the CDC website <www.cdc.gov/COVID19> for updates and information.

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