Generally what we know and don’t know

Today I’d like to talk about the COVID virus and our path forward as a county. This virus has tested our county and our country like nothing we’ve experienced in decades. It may not nearly be over in the foreseeable future without continued support. There is all sorts of information out there and so do any thoughts and opinions that go right along with the beliefs about it. We each should look at our own situation, health, and information that we feel is correct and make a choice to vaccinate or not to vaccinate. Questions, “Check and discuss this with your Doctor”, that choice is ours.

We have more cases on average now than we did at the height of the infections at the start of the challenge in 2020. One in almost every 5 + people (that number is just from the ones that have been formally checked by the hospitals, doctors, and Valley Health) have been infected already and it is predicted this surge has not reached its peak. Yet already our local ICU beds are being challenged to even admit additional patients or are near a level of capacity. We’ve all seen or heard the horror stories of counties, states, and countries that were overwhelmed by COVID-19 and had to ration healthcare for those most in need. We cannot let that happen here.

Warren County’s COVID-19 and its variants have a high transmission rate due to any reason but it seems that unvaccinated people are at an even higher risk. Vaccinated people have a lower risk, but it is still there, even with the two shots plus the booster, it can still strike again.

There’s a developing consensus that there will be more tough times before it gets better. How bad? We don’t know for sure. How long? We don’t know that either.

There is still a lot we don’t know about this virus. Exactly how it’s transmitted, by the air, close contact, crowds, etc… We know it can be deadly, but we also don’t know how many survivors will have permanent damage to their hearts, lungs, brains, and other body parts. We don’t know if the antibodies will last for those exposed to the virus or if a vaccine is even a realistic possibility in the long term without continued boosters like the flu or the many other diseases for which we have taken shots.

Until we have solid solutions, the unknown is going to be with us. To me, that’s an unsettling thought but it doesn’t leave us defenseless.

There are things we can do individually and collectively that work to reduce the risk of catching the COVID-19 virus in the first place…social distancing, limiting personal contact time, washing your hands, wearing a mask in public, and getting the shots and booster. You’ve heard them all repeatedly. What I want to drive home today is why it’s important to you and your family and friends, and maybe your business to continue following all reasonable guidelines during this time for the foreseeable future. I don’t expect mandates unless the government changes its direction on prevention. Public opinion is just too high for this to be changed. Precautions are a choice.

There will be some that say this idea is unsound, crazy, or worse but realistically, the COVID virus doesn’t care about who you are, your political position, your health, your religious beliefs or social standards your wealth, or living standard. The Virus only “cares” about finding the next host so it can infect, multiply and continue to infect others, multiply and mutate. If it can’t find a new host, it slowly dies.

We’ve been “fortunate” in Warren County and haven’t been as hard hit as other parts of Virginia. I put fortunate in quote marks, however. Over 7699 plus confirmed cases are reported so far and that is the number having been reported, included in this number is the 111+ deaths is mind-numbing to me. I grieve for each family and person that has suffered in any way from this relentless infection.

Yet, as a county, we are fortunate because, for the most part, people are learning to do their part to prevent the spread of the disease. Imagine though, if we have a continued spike in cases. Hospital beds would continue to fill up like they are in Florida, Texas, California, and other places in the country. Medical staff, who are already tired and some even exhausted, would quickly continue to be short-staffed and overwhelmed. Businesses would have to close or be short-staffed and less than what they would like to be again, some never to reopen. Jobs lost. We’d be right back to square one.

That’s why we can’t allow a surge to continue to happen here, in Warren County. It would continue to be devastating.

The virus spreads when a carrier, someone who’s infected, is in close proximity with others for several minutes. I find it hard to stay 6 feet away from people I’m talking to. And I talk with people a lot during the day with all activities I do.

Our actions should tend to put us into what we feel is a new normal and to be within 6 feet of someone when you’re talking. I understand that and I have to concentrate and make an effort to distance myself all the time.

There are times it is impossible to stay a safe distance away. Keep the conversation short. It takes several minutes of exposure to infect someone or get infected. IF you feel unsafe or in a new situation wear a mask. We seem to feel a mask provides limited protection for the person wearing it but offers some protection for others. Some protection is better than none. Avoid touching your face and wash or sanitize your hands thoroughly as soon as you’re done. Remember it only takes one time being in the wrong place at the wrong time or situation to get infected.

A friend of mine has an interesting way of looking at it. He tells his kids that anyone they come in close contact with is a part of their family for 14 days…someone at work, someone at school, random people at the grocery store, or park anywhere. The more people you come into close contact with, the greater the risk. So take precautions and just be aware.

While supporting our local businesses to support customers and staff to wear masks help some in restaurants and other service areas. Admittedly I understand it is their choice. The stance is getting harder, be patient with it and if you can comply, try and do your part. It is a choice.

Our businesses recognize the need for precautions in close quarters. We get many visitors from Northern Virginia and the District and all over the region and adjoining states after all we are a tourist town. Still, areas are having an increase in cases right now. While we want them to come and enjoy our beautiful area, we also want them to be safe and not spread the virus or take it back with them when they leave, if at all possible.

We’re expecting our schools to know how to safely provide the best education we can for our young people no matter how they are given it. Let’s try our best to continue to help keep the schools open. The plan has to be safe for students, teachers, and staff to the best of the school system’s ability. A lot is being asked on so many levels by our parents, teachers, and students so we need to be reasonable and aware.

More broadly, we must look “down the road” to see how to be better prepared for possible unintended consequences of the COVID-19 virus and its various variants that may be headed our way.…the potential food supply chain interruptions (look at some of the food shortages now, they are not bad, but look like a possibility), homelessness, frustration or even unrest, we need to work with our non-profits and our churches to be as prepared as much as possible for the potential’s that could be out there. If there is a local spike, we can’t start planning then, then it will be too late, it will have to be now. Build our community, and county from a different level, protecting our own.

We’re already feeding at-risk children and their families. Since the epidemic started, boxes of food have been delivered to local families and in the future, more boxes of food will be delivered, if the need exists. I’m proud of a Victory Garden that was started this summer and run by volunteers that have produced fresh vegetables that have been taken to C-CAP, Loaves and Fishes, Salvation Army, and other Church food banks for distribution to those that may or even want it to the tune of 4 tons of fresh produce. The recipients have always been appreciative. There is room for more.

It is that sense of volunteerism in our community that gives me the greatest hope. By putting aside our differences and looking out for each other, we can overcome this virus and continue to be another step down the road to economic and social recovery.

Times are tough. Tough times can bring out the best in people, all people. That is what I’m counting on.

Be considerate of others by wearing a mask in public if you choose. Be aware of getting too close. Reduce the risk of infection by avoiding crowds washing your hands and sanitizing whenever you’ve been out.

I know there is the possibility I will be inundated with other comments about all the reasons why this is all false. The simple fact is people are sick, some have lost their lives and that should just keep us aware that something is going on. I am not one for the politics of it, or the religious or even medical possibilities. The Risk does not seem to outweigh the need to protect yourself and others when and where you can. Be aware.

IF you choose, “Get the Vaccine”.

If you have questions about the vaccine and if it is right for you and with your current medical situation. “Talk to your Doctor“

We are stronger together.

Thank you.

Walt Mabe
Front Royal