Debate Continues Over Tax Rate as Supervisor Offers New Option

I am grateful for the thoughtful engagement of my North River District constituent who wrote in response to the recent article about my alternative tax rate proposal. Engaged, analytical constituents make for better governance, and this letter deserves a careful response. I want to address several points where I believe the letter draws incorrect conclusions — not to be argumentative, but because the factual record matters when the Board makes a decision that will affect every property owner and business in Warren County.

On the AUMA cash flow analysis being “just a model.”

The letter suggests that the AUMA analysis is a projection that should be treated with caution because it is not audited data. This mischaracterizes what the analysis is. The AUMA report is based on five years of actual, observed cash transactions — money that moved in and out of county accounts on specific dates. It is not a forecast of future behavior. It is a description of past behavior.

The distinction matters. When a pattern repeats within a narrow band of variability over five consecutive years — the same seasonal troughs, the same recovery timing, the same amplitude — identifying that pattern and estimating within its historical bounds is not speculation. It is not projecting outside the data, the way a climate model might forecast temperatures decades ahead. It is recognizing a reliable, repeatable cycle and reasoning within the range the data has already established. That is not a projection. That is an observation. Using it to inform decisions about the county’s cash position is sound and appropriate financial analysis — exactly the kind of analytical approach the Davenport presenter told the Board that ratings agencies now expect.

On debt service: no restructuring is taking place.

The letter raises concern that “adjusting the county’s debt repayment approach may provide short-term flexibility but does not reduce the underlying obligation and may increase total cost over time.” This reflects a misunderstanding of what the proposal actually involves. No adjustment to the county’s debt repayment approach is being proposed — none whatsoever.

The debt service reductions in FY2029 and FY2030 are the county’s existing bonds paying down on their original, unmodified amortization schedule. These are not refinanced. They are not extended. No new cost is incurred. The county simply owes less in those years because that is what the original bond documents have always provided. The reduction of nearly $3 million per year in FY2030 is on the county’s own published debt schedule and requires no Board action. Characterizing this as “adjusting the debt repayment approach” is not accurate.

On economic development revenue and the nature of the commitment.

The letter focuses on economic development revenue as though it is the load-bearing assumption the bridge strategy depends on. It is not. The strategy was explicitly designed with no single point of failure. The debt service reduction alone — scheduled, certain, requiring no Board action — closes the majority of the FY2030 funding gap without any discretionary revenue effort. Investment interest on existing reserve balances is already being earned. These two sources are the structural foundation. Economic development revenue is the furthest out and the smallest of the offsets. It is upside margin, not the pillar holding up the bridge.

More importantly, the letter misframes the choice that economic development revenue presents. The question is not whether the Board can guarantee that revenue before raising taxes. The question is whether the Board should commit to pursuing it — and raise taxes only if that pursuit fails — rather than raising taxes preemptively because success is not guaranteed in advance. Locking in a permanent 21% tax increase

before making a good faith effort to generate the revenue is collecting more tax now because it might be necessary later. The responsible sequence is to commit, pursue, monitor, and adjust — not to abandon the effort before it begins and ask taxpayers to cover the gap permanently.

On the Parks and Recreation budget increases.

The constituent raises questions about significant percentage increases in Parks and Recreation line items. This is a fair observation that deserves a factual answer: Parks and Recreation absorbed facility maintenance responsibilities that were previously carried by the Public Works department. The county’s total maintenance expenditure has not increased by the percentages shown in the Parks and Rec column; it has been reclassified.

On audit uncertainty and the timing of decisions.

The letter’s closing argument is that the county should complete its audits and verify its financial position before making decisions based on projections. I agree with this principle entirely — and have said so in my proposal. But the letter then supports adopting the maximum 10-cent tax rate now, before those audits are complete. That position is not internally consistent. The audit uncertainty the letter cites applies equally to both options. The reserve figures, the revenue projections, and the expenditure baselines that underpin the maximum rate are drawn from the same unaudited financial position as my alternative proposal.

If the standard for action is verified information, neither option can be adopted with full confidence until the audits are done. But there is an important asymmetry: a permanent tax increase, once adopted, is very difficult to reduce. A year-by-year bridge strategy, by design, can be slowed, paused, or adjusted as new information — including audit findings — becomes available. The bridge strategy is actually better suited to an environment of financial uncertainty than a permanent rate lock-in.

I share my constituent’s commitment to accountability, transparency, and sound financial management. Those are exactly the values that led me to develop this alternative. Before Warren County asks its residents and businesses to absorb a permanent 21% tax increase, the Board should exhaust every responsible option available to it — completing the AUP engagement, confirming meals tax compliance, committing to the revenue actions within its authority, and deploying the excess reserves that taxpayers have already provided.

Richard Jamieson, Ph.D.
Supervisor North River District
Warren County Board of Supervisors

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