Shenandoah River flooding concerns diminishing as National Weather Service reduces local rain estimates

The following update on consequences of the remnants of Hurricane Ida was released by Deputy Warren County Emergency Services Coordinator Brian Foley at noon Wednesday. It is good news, with remaining rain total estimates in our area reduced to 2-to-3 inches and Shenandoah River flooding concerns diminishing. Below is the full update:

1. Summary – Tropical Depression Ida:

NWS (National Weather Service) Sterling provided a weather update for our region at 11:00 a.m. this morning. The two primary concerns for our area remain: (1) flash flooding and (2) a slight risk of tornado activity. Rainfall is expected at 2” to 3” for the remainder of the event time period. However, with ground saturation, downed trees and power lines are possible. Additionally, significant river flooding on the Shenandoah River is not expected; the primary concern for flooding will be on the Potomac River.

3. Local River Gauges.  As of this morning, the NWS is reporting the following information for the Ida time period:

• South Fork/Luray Gauge forecast – maximum of 8.0 feet early Friday a.m.; note minor flood stage is 14 feet.
• South Fork/Front Royal Gauge forecast – maximum of 5.9 feet; note minor flood stage is 12 feet.
• North Fork/Front Royal Gauge forecast – maximum of 13.7 feet; note minor flood stage is 17 feet.
• North Fork/Passage Creek Gauge forecast – maximum of 4.43 feet; note minor flood stage is 9 feet.
• Shenandoah/Milldale Gauge forecast – maximum of 10.8 feet; note minor flood stage is 10 feet.

OTHER RELATED INFORMATION

2. Hazardous Weather (as of 05:29 AM EDT Tue Aug 31, 2021).

(a) DAY ONE…Today and Tonight

• A Flash Flood Watch continues for the entire outlook area through tonight. Heavy tropical rainfall could result in considerable flash flooding. River flooding is also possible, which could continue through the end of the week.
• Scattered damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
• A River Flood Watch is in effect for several river basins in parts of western and northern Maryland and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia starting Thursday morning.

(b) DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Thursday through Tuesday

• No hazardous weather is expected at this time.