Spanberger Opens Double-Digit Lead Over Earle-Sears in New Poll

Virginia’s gubernatorial race has taken a dramatic twist as a new poll now shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger surging to 39% against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the likely Republican nominee, at 24%, a striking shift from their tied 39% status in the same survey in September.

Former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (left), and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. (Photos by Parker Michels-Boyce and Mechelle Hankerson for the Virginia Mercury)

The poll, released Tuesday by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College (IPOR), also revealed that 32% remain undecided, with more than a quarter saying they don’t know enough about either candidate.

“Still hungover with joy or grief from the elections of 2024, Virginians haven’t yet focused on November 2025,” said Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.

“Even with one-third undecided, a candidate would prefer to be in Abigail Spanberger’s position with a 15-point lead over Winsome Earle-Sears. But there is an eternity of political time and much work to do before this election takes center stage.”

Among the likely 2025 gubernatorial contenders, Spanberger is seen as 37% favorable and 37% unfavorable, while Earle-Sears lags slightly at 34% favorable to 39% unfavorable, with roughly 1 in 4 voters still on the fence.

Republican Dave LaRock, a former member of the House of Delegates who announced last week that he was exploring a gubernatorial bid, was not included in the survey.

Overall, perceptions of Virginia’s and the nation’s direction have held firm, the survey found. Just over half (51%) believe Virginia is on the right track, while a strong 67% say the country is veering off course. President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 37% — which is consistent with how Virginians saw his first term — while Gov. Glenn Youngkin maintains a steady 53% approval.

When it comes to popularity, Youngkin leads with 48% viewing him positively versus 42% unfavorably. Trump’s numbers remain similar to his earlier tenure at 37% favorable against 58% unfavorable.

The poll also found that a majority of Virginians (59%) prefer the state’s progressive tax system over a flat tax (40%). Concerns run high about perceived inequities in the tax system, with 87% unhappy that corporations aren’t paying their fair share, 84% citing the same for the wealthy, and 82% frustrated by the system’s complexity.

Additionally, 70% of respondents are dissatisfied with their own tax burden, though fewer (30%) worry that the poor aren’t contributing enough. When informed that the top 1% pay roughly 26% of their income in taxes, while the bottom half pay around 3%, nearly half (42%) felt the wealthiest Americans were paying too little — though 41% thought the current rate was fair. A majority (61%) believed the bottom half were paying an appropriate amount.

Virginians are generally supportive of increased legal immigration opportunities, with 81% backing the expansion, but also favor more deportations for those here illegally (59%), the survey revealed.

A strong majority (72%) supports giving asylum seekers the right to work while awaiting decisions, and 60% back tougher penalties for businesses hiring unauthorized workers.

However, they draw the line at expanding the border wall — 52% oppose, while 46% are in favor. When it comes to immigrants without legal status who are already in the U.S., 72% believe they should be allowed to stay if they meet certain conditions, though 26% disagree.

This contrasts with the previous support for deportations, which could stem from how the issue is framed — either as “undocumented immigrants” or “people illegally in the country.” Additionally, 76% of Virginians support automatic citizenship for children born in the U.S.

“With regard to taxes, no one likes to pay them, but respondents would be happy to make the wealthy and corporations pay more,” said IPOR’s Wilson. “On the issue of immigration, Virginians would like to see more legal immigration, but aren’t too unhappy with more restrictions on those coming to the U.S. illegally.”

The poll was conducted between Feb. 17 and Feb. 20 by interviewing 690 Virginia respondents by phone and text messages. It has a weighted margin of error of 4.66%.

by Markus Schmidt, Virginia Mercury

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