Overall Spending Down, Other Takeaways From Historic Governor’s Race

RICHMOND, Va. — The upcoming Virginia gubernatorial election will make history, with the state’s first female governor poised to take office in January, but it is not generating as much money as some past races.

Republican Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger are the nominees for governor. Earle-Sears is the current lieutenant governor. Spanberger previously served in Congress. (Earle-Sears photo courtesy Virginia Lieutenant Governor’s Office, Spanberger photo courtesy U.S. House of Representatives)

Republican nominee and current Lt. Gov Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger are making their final pushes to voters before they fill out their ballots.

Even with the historic implications, total fundraising for this gubernatorial race is substantially down from other recent elections, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

(Graphic courtesy Virginia Public Access Project)

Why the fundraising decrease?

Political Action Committees, or PACs, are tagged as the industry that gives the most money in Virginia statewide races. As of Sept. 29, just over $16 million has been donated from PACs on both sides of the aisle, a notable decrease from the $40.5 million donated in 2021 and the $36 million donated in 2017, although money is still coming in, according to VPAP.

This year’s numbers are lower than recent elections, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the election is not drawing interest, according to Richard Meagher, professor of political science at Randolph-Macon College.

“Sometimes it’s an outlier, like in 2021 you have a very, very wealthy individual, Glenn Youngkin, running against a very, very well-connected fundraiser, Terry McAuliffe,” Meagher said.

Because the last election raised such high financial numbers, it may be skewing ideas of what to raise in future elections, according to Meagher.

Outsider Funding

Both nominees have garnered a substantial amount of funding from individual donations outside of Virginia, according to VPAP. Spanberger has seen nearly 42% of her individual donations come from out-of-state contributors, while Earle-Sears has received 36% from such donors..

“That’s more and more the trend,” Meagher said. “Being a Democrat in Virginia matters much more to national Democrats than it used to.”

Virginia is 1 of 4 states in the country that hold odd-year elections outside the year of a national election, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

This draws participation from both political parties nationally, as they may not want to wait until their next election to try and make a difference, according to Meagher.

Miscellaneous groups provide major cash infusions

The second highest industry to donate to statewide candidates are labeled miscellaneous groups, according to VPAP. They have donated $14 million toward both political parties as of Sept. 29.

Within this industry, retirees top the charts in total money donated, with in and out-of-state donors. In a close second, nonwage earners have contributed several million dollars to nominees in this race.

Donors within this category do not list their occupations or backgrounds, so it cannot be determined what industry they would align to, according to a VPAP representative. Thus, they are listed as nonwage earners.

Advocacy groups

Single issue groups claim the No. 3 spot for statewide candidate donations.

Donations tagged environmental groups lead at $3.6 million, with most coming from nonprofit Clean Virginia, which now competes against Dominion Energy with political donations.

Miscellaneous single issue groups such as veteran groups are in the second top donors under this category, followed by abortion rights and gun control.

Real estate, gaming industries contributing more

Real estate is the No. 4 top by industry, with $5.8 donated so far.

Developers lead the fundraising charge within the real estate industry, with over $2.1 million donated, according to VPAP. Several of the top donations are to Republican candidates.

“Real estate developers always donate money,” Meagher said. “They’re always a kind of powerful interest. Sometimes they focus more on local constituencies … they might work in local elections because they think they can get something out of it.”

Also paying into the political pot now is gaming, notably sports betting. Gaming has only been legal for a handful of years in Virginia, but it has been a large player within the state’s economy. The state has made nearly $2 billion in revenue from sports betting within the state since the first legalized bets were accepted in January 2021, according to numbers from the Virginia Lottery.

The rise of the gaming lobby in Virginia is a result of new casinos and legalization of online sports betting.

“That’s why you’re seeing more and more money being thrown around,” Meagher said.

Grassroots fundraising a ‘good sign’

Since Virginia’s last gubernatorial election, Spanberger has received a higher amount of cash contributions of $100 or less and from a greater number of donors than her opponent, Earle-Sears, according to VPAP.

“If you’re looking at the strength of a candidate, you don’t want to just look at their dollar amount totals, you want to look at the number of contributions they get,” Meagher said.

This number heavily favors Spanberger, which suggests support for her campaign is deep, and is more of a grassroots effort than Earle-Sears.

“I think one of the reasons that people are really bullish on the Democrats’ chances this year is it’s not just that the money is coming in from big money donors in the national Democratic groups, it’s that the money is coming in from individuals,” Meagher said. “People are fired up to give their $20, their $10, their $50 to Spanberger.”

Money isn’t everything

Even though the financials seem to heavily favor Spanberger, this does not mean she is guaranteed to win. All polls have Spanberger ahead of her opponent, but there is no victor until all the ballots are officially counted.

“Just because you have more people than the other side who are going to cut you checks doesn’t mean that those people are all going to vote, or that they translate into the same amount of votes,” Meagher said.

Early in-person voting is open until Nov. 1. Election Day is Nov. 4, with polls open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

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